AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

League Two
Port ValePort ValeDLLWL
Full time1-0Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1015:00UK
GrimsbyGrimsbyDWWLL

Port Vale 1-0 Grimsby cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47%

Result

Port Vale1-0Grimsby
2 yellow cardsPort Vale 1, Grimsby 1
0 red cardsPort Vale 0, Grimsby 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 53.0% and it missed (2 in the match). We called No at 90.3% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards53.0%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Ross Martin

Recorded match referee.

Ross Martin in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 16 3
Goals 1.94 Not available
Yellow cards 3.81 Not available
Red cards 0.06 Not available
Corners 10.2 Not available
Fouls 24.0 Not available
Both teams scored 44% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 25% Not available
Home wins 44% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
10 Oct 2026 Port Vale vs Grimsby 1-0 1 No 2 0 12 19
3 Oct 2026 Salford vs Fleetwood Town 1-0 1 No 2 0 14 13
1 Sep 2026 Chesterfield vs Gillingham 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 10 20
18 Apr 2026 Fleetwood Town vs Chesterfield 1-1 2 Yes 0 1 10 17
3 Mar 2026 Bromley vs Oldham 0-0 0 No 4 0 10 21
28 Feb 2026 Colchester vs Salford 0-1 1 No 5 0 9 30
17 Feb 2026 Crewe vs Fleetwood Town 0-1 1 No 3 0 8 25
3 Feb 2026 Harrogate vs Swindon 0-1 1 No 2 0 16 16
24 Jan 2026 Cambridge vs Tranmere 4-2 6 Yes 5 0 8 25
17 Jan 2026 Accrington vs Milton Keynes Dons 0-2 2 No 4 0 5 27

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Port Vale vs Grimsby. The model leans toward Port Vale for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.4% 26.6%
3.5 cards 53.0% 47.0%
4.5 cards 33.6% 66.4%
5.5 cards 18.7% 81.3%

Who picks up more cards

Port Vale
41.9%
Level
21.2%
Grimsby
36.9%

Team cards lines

Port Vale

Over 1.5
58.6%
Over 2.5
31.6%

Grimsby

Over 1.5
55.1%
Over 2.5
28.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Port Vale's; Grimsby gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Port Vale line Port Vale Grimsby
-1.5 23.1% 76.9%
-0.5 41.9% 58.1%
+0.5 63.1% 36.9%
+1.5 80.6% 19.4%

Red card

Any red card9.7%
Port Vale red card7.3%
Grimsby red card2.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 75.8% 24.2%
22.5 fouls 62.0% 38.0%
24.5 fouls 47.0% 53.0%
Port ValePort Vale

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Port Vale at home and Grimsby away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

GrimsbyGrimsby
Statistic
Port Vale
Grimsby
Cards per game at this venue
1.7
1.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.0
2.0

Yellow cards per game
2.1
1.4

Red cards this season
0
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 53.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.4% for over 2.5 to 18.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.0%. Head to head on cards, Port Vale are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.9%, with a level count at 21.2%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Port Vale over 1.5 cards sits at 58.6% and Grimsby at 55.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.7% (Port Vale 7.3%, Grimsby 2.6%). This season Port Vale have averaged 2.1 cards a game and Grimsby 1.4.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

53.0%Over 3.5 cards
9.7%Any red card
41.9%Most cards: Port Vale
58.6%Port Vale over 1.5 cards
55.1%Grimsby over 1.5 cards
62.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 9.7%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianPort Vale are the pick to collect more cards at 41.9%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 53.0%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Port ValePort Vale

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

GrimsbyGrimsby
Statistic
Port Vale
Grimsby
cards per game
2.1
1.4

fouls per game
15.3
12.6

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Port Vale vs Grimsby?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.0% for Port Vale vs Grimsby.
Will there be a red card in Port Vale vs Grimsby?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 9.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Port Vale vs Grimsby?
Before kickoff, the model rated Port Vale to pick up more cards at 41.9%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.