AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Serie A
ParmaParmaWLLLD
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1117:00UK11°C · Cloudy
BolognaBolognaWLWWW

Parma vs Bologna cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.4%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.6%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards46.6%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Parma vs Bologna. The model leans toward Bologna for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 67.1% 32.9%
3.5 cards 46.6% 53.4%
4.5 cards 28.7% 71.3%
5.5 cards 15.9% 84.1%

Who picks up more cards

Parma
36.2%
Level
21.4%
Bologna
42.4%

Team cards lines

Parma

Over 1.5
49.3%
Over 2.5
24.5%

Bologna

Over 1.5
53.8%
Over 2.5
28.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Parma's; Bologna gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Parma line Parma Bologna
-1.5 18.9% 81.1%
-0.5 36.2% 63.8%
+0.5 57.6% 42.4%
+1.5 76.4% 23.6%

Red card

Any red card18.0%
Parma red card7.0%
Bologna red card11.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 78.1% 21.9%
22.5 fouls 67.1% 32.9%
24.5 fouls 54.8% 45.2%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Bologna Daniele Doveri 2 4.0 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

ParmaParma

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Parma at home and Bologna away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BolognaBologna
Statistic
Parma
Bologna
Yellow cards per game
1.8
2.0

First-half yellow cards per game
0.3
0.8

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.5
1.0

Matches with card data
2
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 10,300 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 46.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.1% for over 2.5 to 15.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.6%. Head to head on cards, Bologna are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.4%, with a level count at 21.4%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Parma over 1.5 cards sits at 49.3% and Bologna at 53.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.0% (Parma 7.0%, Bologna 11.8%). Bologna’s most frequent referee this season, Daniele Doveri, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

46.6%Over 3.5 cards
18.0%Any red card
42.4%Most cards: Bologna
49.3%Parma over 1.5 cards
53.8%Bologna over 1.5 cards
67.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 46.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherDaniele Doveri, Bologna’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 18.0%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianBologna are the pick to collect more cards at 42.4%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
ParmaParma

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BolognaBologna
Statistic
Parma
Bologna
fouls per game
10.1
12.7

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Parma vs Bologna?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 46.6% for Parma vs Bologna.
Will there be a red card in Parma vs Bologna?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Parma vs Bologna?
The model rates Bologna to pick up more cards at 42.4%, with a level count at 21.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Serie AParma fixtures and statsBologna fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.