Ligue 1
Paris SG vs 
Rennes Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 55.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 67.5% for over 22.5 to 31.2% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.3%. Between the two sides, Paris SG are the model’s pick to have more shots at 71.1%, with a level count at 5.2%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| 24.5 shots | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| 26.5 shots | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| 28.5 shots | 31.2% | 68.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
80.7%
66.5%
50.5%
49.6%
31.6%
18.0%
Shot handicap
| Paris SG line | Paris SG | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| -2.5 | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| -0.5 | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| +0.5 | 76.3% | 23.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 82.2% | 17.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 72.4% | 27.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 49.4% | 50.6% |
This season (2025/26)
17.7Paris SG shots per game14.2Rennes shots per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Paris SG.
In-depth analysis
55.3%Over 24.5 shots66.5%Paris SG over 12.5 shots31.6%Rennes over 12.5 shots72.4%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Paris SG over 12.5 shots sits at 66.5% and Rennes at 31.6%. This season Paris SG have averaged 17.7 shots a game and Rennes 14.2.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Paris SG vs Rennes?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 55.3% for Paris SG vs Rennes.
Which team will have more shots in Paris SG vs Rennes?
The model rates Paris SG to take more shots at 71.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.