Ligue 1
Paris SG vs 
Rennes Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 67.2%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Paris SG have averaged 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded, Rennes 2.0 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 67.2% for over 2.5 and 86.4% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 goals a game. Paris SG have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Rennes in 5 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 96.5% | 3.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 86.4% | 13.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| 3.5 goals | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 26.8% | 73.2% |
| 5.5 goals | 13.8% | 86.2% |
Team goal lines
90.8%
69.0%
42.8%
65.7%
29.0%
9.4%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 18.4% | 81.6% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 86.5% | 13.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 32.4% | 67.6% |
This season (2025/26)
2.2Paris SG goals scored per game0.9Paris SG goals conceded per game61.8%Paris SG Over 2.5 rate1.0Paris SG 1st-half goals per game1.7Rennes goals scored per game1.5Rennes goals conceded per game70.6%Rennes Over 2.5 rate0.8Rennes 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
60.1%Both Teams to Score67.2%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 67.2% for three or more goals and 86.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Paris SG favoured at 70.8%, they may control possession and keep things tighter.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Paris SG to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Paris SG 3 · 1 draws · Rennes 1 · 4.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paris SG vs Rennes?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 67.2% for Paris SG vs Rennes.
Will there be a first-half goal in Paris SG vs Rennes?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 77.1%.
How often have Paris SG gone over 2.5 recently?
Paris SG have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Rennes in 5 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,496 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.