Ligue 1
Paris SG vs 
Rennes Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 50.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.6% for over 7.5 to 20.6% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.4%. Between the two sides, Paris SG are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 60.3%, with a level count at 10.1%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 74.6% | 25.4% |
| 8.5 corners | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| 9.5 corners | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| 10.5 corners | 39.8% | 60.3% |
| 11.5 corners | 29.3% | 70.7% |
| 12.5 corners | 20.6% | 79.4% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
77.6%
63.4%
48.5%
57.4%
40.0%
25.7%
Corner handicap
| Paris SG line | Paris SG | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| -1.5 | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| -0.5 | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| +0.5 | 70.4% | 29.6% |
This season (2025/26)
The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Paris SG.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Paris SG over 4.5 corners sits at 63.4% and Rennes at 40.0%. This season Paris SG have averaged 6.4 corners won a game and Rennes 6.0.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Paris SG vs Rennes?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 51.4% for Paris SG vs Rennes.
Which team will win the corner count in Paris SG vs Rennes?
The model rates Paris SG to win the corner count at 60.3%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How many corners do Paris SG and Rennes average this season?
Paris SG have won 6.4 corners a game this season and Rennes 6.0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.