AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Pro League
Oud-Heverlee LeuvenOud-HeverleeDWDDW
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1117:15UK
MechelenMechelenLLDWW

Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Mechelen cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55.4%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined44.7%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards55.4%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Mechelen. Slightly more cards are projected for Mechelen for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.1% 24.9%
3.5 cards 55.4% 44.7%
4.5 cards 36.0% 64.0%
5.5 cards 20.7% 79.3%

Who picks up more cards

Oud-Heverlee Leuven
37.5%
Level
20.7%
Mechelen
41.8%

Team cards lines

Oud-Heverlee Leuven

Over 1.5
56.8%
Over 2.5
30.0%

Mechelen

Over 1.5
59.9%
Over 2.5
33.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Oud-Heverlee Leuven's; Mechelen gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven line Oud-Heverlee Leuven Mechelen
-1.5 20.1% 79.9%
-0.5 37.5% 62.5%
+0.5 58.2% 41.8%
+1.5 76.6% 23.4%

Red card

Any red card11.4%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven red card6.3%
Mechelen red card5.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 70.3% 29.7%
22.5 fouls 56.6% 43.4%
24.5 fouls 42.5% 57.5%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Oud-Heverlee Leuven J. Vergoote 2 3.0 1.5
Oud-Heverlee Leuven M. Allaerts 2 3.5 2.5
Mechelen E. Lambrechts 2 3.0 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Oud-Heverlee LeuvenOud-Heverlee

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Oud-Heverlee Leuven at home and Mechelen away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

MechelenMechelen
Statistic
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Mechelen
Yellow cards per game
2.4
1.9

First-half yellow cards per game
0.7
0.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.7
1.6

Matches with card data
3
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 11,340 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 55.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.1% for over 2.5 to 20.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.4%. On the card count, Mechelen are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.8%, with a level count at 20.7%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Oud-Heverlee Leuven over 1.5 cards sits at 56.8% and Mechelen at 59.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.4% (Oud-Heverlee Leuven 6.3%, Mechelen 5.4%). Oud-Heverlee Leuven’s most frequent referee this season, J. Vergoote, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

55.4%Over 3.5 cards
11.4%Any red card
41.8%Most cards: Mechelen
56.8%Oud-Heverlee Leuven over 1.5 cards
59.9%Mechelen over 1.5 cards
56.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherJ. Vergoote, Oud-Heverlee Leuven’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 11.4%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianMechelen are the pick to collect more cards at 41.8%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
Oud-Heverlee LeuvenOud-Heverlee

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

MechelenMechelen
Statistic
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Mechelen
fouls per game
11.4
12.3

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Mechelen?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 55.4% for Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Mechelen.
Will there be a red card in Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Mechelen?
The model rates a red card for either side at 11.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Mechelen?
The model rates Mechelen to pick up more cards at 41.8%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Pro LeagueOud-Heverlee Leuven fixtures and statsMechelen fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.