Super League Greece
OFI Crete vs 
Asteras Tripolis Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 73.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 87.5% for over 2.5 to 38.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.8%. Head to head on cards, Asteras Tripolis are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.4%, with a level count at 17.7%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 87.5% | 12.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 38.3% | 61.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
63.8%
36.9%
77.3%
53.6%
Card handicap
| OFI Crete line | OFI Crete | Asteras Tripolis |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.1% | 83.9% |
| -0.5 | 29.9% | 70.1% |
| +0.5 | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| +1.5 | 65.6% | 34.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 90.7% | 9.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 83.3% | 16.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 73.3% | 26.7% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for OFI Crete vs Asteras Tripolis. It tips Asteras Tripolis for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
73.4%Over 3.5 cards18.9%Any red card63.8%OFI Crete over 1.5 cards77.3%Asteras Tripolis over 1.5 cards83.3%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, OFI Crete over 1.5 cards sits at 63.8% and Asteras Tripolis at 77.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.9% (OFI Crete 9.7%, Asteras Tripolis 10.2%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in OFI Crete vs Asteras Tripolis?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 73.4% for OFI Crete vs Asteras Tripolis.
Will there be a red card in OFI Crete vs Asteras Tripolis?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in OFI Crete vs Asteras Tripolis?
The model rates Asteras Tripolis to pick up more cards at 52.4%, with a level count at 17.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,399 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
