Super League Greece
Atromitos vs 
Kifisia Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 77.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 90.1% for over 2.5 to 44.2% for over 5.5, with over 5.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.2%. On the card count, Kifisia are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 53.4%, with a level count at 17.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 90.1% | 9.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 44.2% | 55.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
67.1%
40.6%
80.5%
58.2%
Card handicap
| Atromitos line | Atromitos | Kifisia |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.2% | 83.8% |
| -0.5 | 29.6% | 70.4% |
| +0.5 | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| +1.5 | 64.0% | 36.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 94.8% | 5.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 89.9% | 10.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 82.4% | 17.6% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Atromitos vs Kifisia. Slightly more cards are projected for Kifisia for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
77.8%Over 3.5 cards29.3%Any red card67.1%Atromitos over 1.5 cards80.5%Kifisia over 1.5 cards89.9%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Atromitos over 1.5 cards sits at 67.1% and Kifisia at 80.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 29.3% (Atromitos 5.8%, Kifisia 25.0%).
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Atromitos vs Kifisia?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 77.8% for Atromitos vs Kifisia.
Will there be a red card in Atromitos vs Kifisia?
The model rates a red card for either side at 29.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Atromitos vs Kifisia?
The model rates Kifisia to pick up more cards at 53.4%, with a level count at 17.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,399 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
AI experts on Cards
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts on this market, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| corner_specialist v1.0 | Over 3.5 cards |
| cards_referee v1.0 | Over 3.5 cards |
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
