Volos NFC vs AEK prediction & probabilities (2026-09-20)

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Volos NFC vs AEK: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 19 Sep 2026

Super League Greece
Volos NFC

LLDDL

Sun, 20 Sep 202616:00UK
AEK

DWDWD

Model’s top convictions

85%

Draw or AEK

75%

Over 1.5 goals

53%

Not both teams to score

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.09).

Model pick

AEK61.3%

Win probability · fair 1.63

Top signals

Draw or AEKVery likely84.5%Fair 1.18
Over 1.5 goalsLikely74.6%Fair 1.34
Not both teams to scoreClose call53.2%Fair 1.88

Model read

The numbers leave little room for romance here: AEK at 61% against Volos NFC, Super League Greece, 20 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • The market is more convinced than we are, pricing AEK at 72%. Caution noted. • No strong lean on goals (49% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • The recent series reads 0 wins for Volos NFC, 1 draws and 4 for AEK over 5 games, 3.2 goals on average. • Recent form reads W0 D2 L4 for Volos NFC against W2 D4 L0 for AEK. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.09)).

Value & higher-risk angles

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

High risk

Over 8.5 corners47.9%@ 2.09
Volos NFC or draw38.7%@ 2.58
Over 9.5 corners37.5%@ 2.67
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals50.8%@ 1.97
Over 2.5 goals49.2%@ 2.03
Random finds

0-1 correct score12.5%@ 7.98
0-2 correct score12.0%@ 8.33
1-1 correct score11.0%@ 9.07

Model vs market

Volos NFC

15.5%+6.4%

Draw

23.2%+4.4%

AEK

61.3%-10.7%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.09)

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely74.6%Fair 1.34
Over 2.5Close call49.2%Fair 2.03
BTTS · YesClose call46.8%Fair 2.14

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call47.9%Fair 2.09
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely37.5%Fair 2.67
Over 10.5 cornersLong shot28.4%Fair 3.52
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot20.7%Fair 4.83
Most cornersVolos NFC48.3%AEK40.2%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsClose call51.9%Fair 1.93
Over 24.5 shotsUnlikely40.5%Fair 2.47
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely30.2%Fair 3.32
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot21.4%Fair 4.68

Recent shot volume

Volos NFC11.0 taken14.2 faced
AEK16.5 taken11.5 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.574.6%2.549.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.574.6%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.09).

Form & head-to-head

Volos NFCLLDDL
AEKDWDWD

Last 5 meetings: Volos NFC 0 · 1 draws · AEK 4 · 3.2 goals/game.

2026-03-01Volos NFC 2-2 AEK
2025-09-28AEK 1-0 Volos NFC
2025-01-05Volos NFC 2-4 AEK
2024-09-16AEK 2-0 Volos NFC
2024-01-03AEK 3-0 Volos NFC

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Volos NFCAEK
League position#11 of 14#5 of 14
Record W-D-L0-2-22-2-0
Current streakL1D1
Record, home vs away0-2-00-2-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.57 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 39% · BTTS in 46%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Volos NFC win9.006.45
Draw4.754.31
AEK win1.331.63
Over 2.5 goals1.732.03
Under 2.5 goals2.081.97

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Volos NFC win6.46
Draw4.30
AEK win1.63
Both teams to score2.14

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.34
Over 2.5 goals2.03
Over 3.5 goals3.66
Volos NFC most6.46
AEK most1.63

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.61
Over 8.5 corners2.03
Over 9.5 corners2.69
Over 10.5 corners3.78
Volos NFC most2.06
AEK most2.48

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.12
Over 3.5 cards1.32
Over 4.5 cards1.69
Over 5.5 cards2.40
Volos NFC most2.33
AEK most2.56

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.58
Over 7.5 SoT1.95
Over 8.5 SoT2.53
Over 9.5 SoT3.42
Volos NFC most2.38
AEK most2.20

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.93
Over 24.5 shots2.47
Over 26.5 shots3.32
Over 28.5 shots4.68
Volos NFC most1.90
AEK most2.41

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.06
Over 22.5 fouls1.12
Over 24.5 fouls1.23
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 51.9% Over 24.5 40.5% Over 26.5 30.2% Over 28.5 21.4%
Most: Volos NFC 52.5% Most: AEK 41.6%
Volos NFC Over 13.2 36.0% AEK Over 13.2 28.7%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 63.4% Over 7.5 51.2% Over 8.5 39.5% Over 9.5 29.3%
Most: Volos NFC 42.1% Most: AEK 45.4%
Volos NFC Over 4.2 35.0% AEK Over 4.2 37.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 89.0% Over 3.5 76.0% Over 4.5 59.1%
Most: Volos NFC 42.9% Most: AEK 39.1%
Volos NFC Over 1.8 74.2% AEK Over 1.8 72.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Volos NFC clean sheet 16.1%
AEK clean sheet 44.3%
Volos NFC win to nil 8.4%
AEK win to nil 36.6%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 15.5% draw 23.2% away 61.3%
double_chance
1X 38.7% 12 76.8% X2 84.5%
dnb
home 20.2% away 79.8%
btts
yes 46.8% no 53.2%
clean_sheet
home 16.0% away 44.8%
win_to_nil
home 8.4% away 37.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 10.7% home_by_2 3.7% home_by_3plus 1.1%
away_by_1 24.8% away_by_2 19.1% away_by_3plus 17.4%
correct_score
0-0 7.7% 0-1 12.5% 0-2 12.0%
0-3 7.4% 0-4 3.4% 0-5 1.3%
1-0 5.3% 1-1 11.0% 1-2 9.6%
1-3 5.9% 1-4 2.7% 1-5 1.0%
2-0 2.3% 2-1 4.2% 2-2 3.9%
2-3 2.4% 2-4 1.1% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 0.6% 3-1 1.2% 3-2 1.0%
3-3 0.6% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.1% 4-1 0.2% 4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.0% 5-1 0.0% 5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.2%
likeliest_score
h 0.0% a 100.0% p 12.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.3% under_0.5 7.7% over_1.5 74.6%
under_1.5 25.5% over_2.5 49.2% under_2.5 50.8%
over_3.5 27.3% under_3.5 72.7% over_4.5 12.9%
under_4.5 87.1% over_5.5 5.2% under_5.5 94.8%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 55.2% under_0.5 44.8% over_1.5 19.3%
under_1.5 80.7% over_2.5 4.8% under_2.5 95.2%
team_away
over_0.5 84.0% under_0.5 16.0% over_1.5 54.7%
under_1.5 45.3% over_2.5 28.0% under_2.5 72.0%
most
home 15.5% draw 23.2% away 61.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 1.1% away_+2.5 98.9% home_-1.5 4.8%
away_+1.5 95.2% home_-0.5 15.5% away_+0.5 84.5%
home_+0.5 38.7% away_-0.5 61.3% home_+1.5 63.5%
away_-1.5 36.5% home_+2.5 82.6% away_-2.5 17.4%
total_exact
exact_0 7.7% exact_1 17.8% exact_2 25.4%
exact_3 21.9% exact_4 14.5% exact_5 7.6%
exact_6 3.4% exact_7plus 1.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 13.7% draw 42.0% away 44.4%
total
over_0.5 66.7% under_0.5 33.3% over_1.5 30.1%
under_1.5 69.9% over_2.5 10.0% under_2.5 90.0%
btts
yes 14.6% no 85.4%
total_exact
exact_0 33.3% exact_1 36.6% exact_2 20.2%
exact_3 7.4% exact_4plus 2.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 13.9% draw 31.7% away 54.4%
total
over_0.5 80.1% under_0.5 20.0% over_1.5 47.9%
under_1.5 52.1% over_2.5 22.0% under_2.5 78.0%
btts
yes 24.6% no 75.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 6.8% H/D 3.8% H/A 3.0%
D/H 5.8% D/D 13.3% D/A 22.8%
A/H 0.8% A/D 3.6% A/A 40.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 62.2% under_7.5 37.8% over_8.5 49.4%
under_8.5 50.6% over_9.5 37.1% under_9.5 62.9%
over_10.5 26.5% under_10.5 73.5% over_11.5 17.9%
under_11.5 82.1% over_12.5 11.6% under_12.5 88.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 62.4% under_3.5 37.6% over_4.5 45.9%
under_4.5 54.1% over_5.5 31.3% under_5.5 68.7%
team_away
over_3.5 56.5% under_3.5 43.5% over_4.5 39.6%
under_4.5 60.4% over_5.5 25.7% under_5.5 74.3%
most
home 48.4% draw 11.2% away 40.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 19.0% away_+3.5 81.0% home_-1.5 37.4%
away_+1.5 62.6% home_-0.5 48.4% away_+0.5 51.6%
home_+0.5 59.7% away_-0.5 40.4% home_+1.5 70.1%
away_-1.5 29.9% home_+3.5 86.1% away_-3.5 13.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 51.9% under_22.5 48.1% over_24.5 40.5%
under_24.5 59.5% over_26.5 30.2% under_26.5 69.8%
over_28.5 21.4% under_28.5 78.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 59.2% under_10.5 40.8% over_12.5 43.3%
under_12.5 56.7% over_14.5 29.4% under_14.5 70.6%
team_away
over_10.5 51.6% under_10.5 48.4% over_12.5 35.6%
under_12.5 64.4% over_14.5 22.7% under_14.5 77.3%
most
home 52.5% draw 5.9% away 41.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 29.7% away_+4.5 70.3% home_-2.5 40.7%
away_+2.5 59.3% home_-0.5 52.5% away_+0.5 47.5%
home_+0.5 58.4% away_-0.5 41.6% home_+2.5 69.5%
away_-2.5 30.5% home_+4.5 79.1% away_-4.5 20.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 63.4% under_6.5 36.6% over_7.5 51.2%
under_7.5 48.8% over_8.5 39.5% under_8.5 60.5%
over_9.5 29.3% under_9.5 70.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 51.3% under_3.5 48.7% over_4.5 35.0%
under_4.5 65.0% over_5.5 22.3% under_5.5 77.7%
team_away
over_3.5 53.6% under_3.5 46.4% over_4.5 37.3%
under_4.5 62.7% over_5.5 24.2% under_5.5 75.8%
most
home 42.1% draw 12.6% away 45.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 20.6% away_+2.5 79.4% home_-0.5 42.1%
away_+0.5 57.9% home_+0.5 54.6% away_-0.5 45.4%
home_+2.5 77.0% away_-2.5 23.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 89.0% under_2.5 11.0% over_3.5 76.0%
under_3.5 24.0% over_4.5 59.1% under_4.5 40.9%
over_5.5 41.6% under_5.5 58.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 74.2% under_1.5 25.9% over_2.5 49.3%
under_2.5 50.7%
team_away
over_1.5 72.0% under_1.5 28.0% over_2.5 46.5%
under_2.5 53.5%
most
home 42.9% draw 18.0% away 39.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 26.4% away_+1.5 73.6% home_-0.5 42.9%
away_+0.5 57.1% home_+0.5 60.9% away_-0.5 39.1%
home_+1.5 76.7% away_-1.5 23.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 94.2% under_20.5 5.8% over_22.5 88.9%
under_22.5 11.1% over_24.5 81.0% under_24.5 19.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 88.2% under_9.5 11.8% over_11.5 75.2%
under_11.5 24.8% over_13.5 58.3% under_13.5 41.7%
team_away
over_9.5 91.3% under_9.5 8.7% over_11.5 80.5%
under_11.5 19.5% over_13.5 65.3% under_13.5 34.8%
most
home 41.7% draw 6.3% away 52.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.6% away_+3.5 75.4% home_-0.5 41.7%
away_+0.5 58.3% home_+2.5 60.7% away_-2.5 39.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 15.5% no 84.5%
home
yes 8.3% no 91.7%
away
yes 7.9% no 92.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Volos NFC predictions · AEK predictions · Super League Greece

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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