Super League Greece
Kalamata vs 
Panathinaikos Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 76.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 89.4% for over 2.5 to 42.5% for over 5.5, with over 5.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 42.5%. On the card count, Panathinaikos are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.2%, with a level count at 17.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 89.4% | 10.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 42.5% | 57.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
73.0%
47.8%
74.2%
49.4%
Card handicap
| Kalamata line | Kalamata | Panathinaikos |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24.0% | 76.0% |
| -0.5 | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| +0.5 | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| +1.5 | 74.1% | 25.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 93.5% | 6.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 87.7% | 12.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 79.3% | 20.7% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Kalamata vs Panathinaikos. The model leans toward Panathinaikos for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
76.6%Over 3.5 cards38.8%Any red card73.0%Kalamata over 1.5 cards74.2%Panathinaikos over 1.5 cards87.7%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Kalamata over 1.5 cards sits at 73.0% and Panathinaikos at 74.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 38.8% (Kalamata 33.2%, Panathinaikos 8.4%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Kalamata vs Panathinaikos?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 76.6% for Kalamata vs Panathinaikos.
Will there be a red card in Kalamata vs Panathinaikos?
The model rates a red card for either side at 38.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Kalamata vs Panathinaikos?
The model rates Panathinaikos to pick up more cards at 42.2%, with a level count at 17.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,399 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
AI experts on Cards
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts on this market, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| corner_specialist v1.0 | Over 3.5 cards |
| cards_referee v1.0 | Over 3.5 cards |
More Super League Greece, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
