OFI Crete vs Asteras Tripolis prediction & probabilities (2026-09-20)

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OFI Crete vs Asteras Tripolis: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 19 Sep 2026

Super League Greece
OFI Crete

WWLWW

Sun, 20 Sep 202617:00UK
Asteras Tripolis

WLLLD

Model’s top convictions

75%

OFI Crete or draw

74%

Over 1.5 goals

52%

Under 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedConservative EV -0.002 <= 0.

Model pick

OFI Crete48.9%

Win probability · fair 2.04

Top signals

OFI Crete or drawVery likely75.3%Fair 1.33
Over 1.5 goalsLikely73.9%Fair 1.35
Under 2.5 goalsClose call51.8%Fair 1.93

Model read

A measured edge to OFI Crete: 49% is the model's line for this Super League Greece meeting on 20 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on OFI Crete than the market (44%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • The run in: OFI Crete arrive W4 D0 L2, Asteras Tripolis W1 D2 L3. • The recent series reads 2 wins for OFI Crete, 0 draws and 3 for Asteras Tripolis over 5 games, 3.0 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.002 <= 0).

Value & higher-risk angles

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

High risk

Over 8.5 corners47.7%@ 2.10
Over 9.5 corners37.3%@ 2.68
Medium risk

Both teams to score51.5%@ 1.94
Draw or Asteras Tripolis51.1%@ 1.96
Over 2.5 goals48.2%@ 2.07
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.6%@ 7.94
1-0 correct score11.0%@ 9.09
2-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.68

Model vs market

OFI Crete

48.9%+5.0%

Draw

26.4%-2.5%

Tripolis

24.7%-2.4%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.002 <= 0

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely73.9%Fair 1.35
Over 2.5Close call48.2%Fair 2.07
BTTS · YesClose call51.5%Fair 1.94

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call47.7%Fair 2.10
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely37.3%Fair 2.68
Over 10.5 cornersLong shot28.1%Fair 3.56
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot20.5%Fair 4.88
Most cornersOFI Crete49.9%Asteras Tripolis38.6%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsClose call51.5%Fair 1.94
Over 24.5 shotsUnlikely40.1%Fair 2.50
Over 26.5 shotsLong shot29.8%Fair 3.36
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot21.0%Fair 4.77

Recent shot volume

OFI Crete11.2 taken16.0 faced
Asteras Tripolis14.5 taken12.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.9%2.548.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.9%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Conservative EV -0.002 <= 0.

Form & head-to-head

OFI CreteWWLWW
Asteras TripolisWLLLD

Last 5 meetings: OFI Crete 2 · 0 draws · Asteras Tripolis 3 · 3.0 goals/game.

2026-01-11OFI Crete 4-0 Asteras Tripolis
2025-11-03Asteras Tripolis 3-0 OFI Crete
2025-04-26OFI Crete 0-2 Asteras Tripolis
2025-04-13Asteras Tripolis 2-1 OFI Crete
2025-02-15OFI Crete 2-1 Asteras Tripolis

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

OFI CreteAsteras Tripolis
League position#3 of 14#13 of 14
Record W-D-L3-0-10-1-3
Current streakW2D1
Record, home vs away2-0-00-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.57 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 39% · BTTS in 46%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
OFI Crete win2.152.04
Draw3.203.79
Asteras Tripolis win3.404.05
Over 2.5 goals2.252.07
Under 2.5 goals1.621.93

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

OFI Crete win2.05
Draw3.78
Asteras Tripolis win4.05
Both teams to score1.94

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.35
Over 2.5 goals2.08
Over 3.5 goals3.79
OFI Crete most2.05
Asteras Tripolis most4.05

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.62
Over 8.5 corners2.04
Over 9.5 corners2.72
Over 10.5 corners3.82
OFI Crete most2.00
Asteras Tripolis most2.58

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.14
Over 3.5 cards1.36
Over 4.5 cards1.79
Over 5.5 cards2.61
OFI Crete most3.34
Asteras Tripolis most1.91

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.52
Over 7.5 SoT1.86
Over 8.5 SoT2.38
Over 9.5 SoT3.17
OFI Crete most1.96
Asteras Tripolis most2.71

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.94
Over 24.5 shots2.50
Over 26.5 shots3.36
Over 28.5 shots4.77
OFI Crete most1.70
Asteras Tripolis most2.83

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.10
Over 22.5 fouls1.20
Over 24.5 fouls1.36
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 51.5% Over 24.5 40.1% Over 26.5 29.7% Over 28.5 21.0%
Most: OFI Crete 59.0% Most: Asteras Tripolis 35.3%
OFI Crete Over 13.2 40.1% Asteras Tripolis Over 13.2 24.3%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 65.6% Over 7.5 53.7% Over 8.5 42.0% Over 9.5 31.6%
Most: OFI Crete 50.9% Most: Asteras Tripolis 36.9%
OFI Crete Over 4.2 42.9% Asteras Tripolis Over 4.2 32.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 87.5% Over 3.5 73.4% Over 4.5 55.8%
Most: OFI Crete 29.9% Most: Asteras Tripolis 52.4%
OFI Crete Over 1.8 63.8% Asteras Tripolis Over 1.8 77.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

OFI Crete clean sheet 35.3%
Asteras Tripolis clean sheet 21.0%
OFI Crete win to nil 27.3%
Asteras Tripolis win to nil 13.0%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 48.9% draw 26.4% away 24.7%
double_chance
1X 75.3% 12 73.6% X2 51.1%
dnb
home 66.4% away 33.6%
btts
yes 51.5% no 48.5%
clean_sheet
home 35.5% away 21.0%
win_to_nil
home 27.5% away 13.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.2% home_by_2 15.1% home_by_3plus 10.6%
away_by_1 15.3% away_by_2 6.7% away_by_3plus 2.7%
correct_score
0-0 8.0% 0-1 7.1% 0-2 4.0%
0-3 1.4% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 11.0% 1-1 12.6% 1-2 6.2%
1-3 2.2% 1-4 0.6% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.1% 2-1 9.4% 2-2 4.9%
2-3 1.7% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.8% 3-1 4.9% 3-2 2.5%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.9% 4-1 1.9% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.6% 5-1 0.6% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.0% under_0.5 8.0% over_1.5 73.9%
under_1.5 26.1% over_2.5 48.2% under_2.5 51.8%
over_3.5 26.4% under_3.5 73.6% over_4.5 12.3%
under_4.5 87.7% over_5.5 4.9% under_5.5 95.1%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 79.0% under_0.5 21.0% over_1.5 46.2%
under_1.5 53.8% over_2.5 20.7% under_2.5 79.3%
team_away
over_0.5 64.5% under_0.5 35.5% over_1.5 27.8%
under_1.5 72.2% over_2.5 8.8% under_2.5 91.2%
most
home 48.9% draw 26.4% away 24.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 10.6% away_+2.5 89.4% home_-1.5 25.6%
away_+1.5 74.4% home_-0.5 48.9% away_+0.5 51.1%
home_+0.5 75.3% away_-0.5 24.7% home_+1.5 90.6%
away_-1.5 9.4% home_+2.5 97.3% away_-2.5 2.7%
total_exact
exact_0 8.0% exact_1 18.1% exact_2 25.7%
exact_3 21.8% exact_4 14.1% exact_5 7.4%
exact_6 3.2% exact_7plus 1.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 49.9% draw 34.8% away 15.3%
total
over_0.5 76.7% under_0.5 23.3% over_1.5 42.7%
under_1.5 57.3% over_2.5 18.0% under_2.5 82.0%
btts
yes 22.4% no 77.6%
total_exact
exact_0 23.3% exact_1 34.0% exact_2 24.7%
exact_3 12.0% exact_4plus 6.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.4% draw 42.6% away 25.0%
total
over_0.5 68.8% under_0.5 31.2% over_1.5 32.4%
under_1.5 67.6% over_2.5 11.3% under_2.5 88.7%
btts
yes 19.3% no 80.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 41.7% H/D 6.4% H/A 1.8%
D/H 11.3% D/D 14.8% D/A 8.7%
A/H 1.2% A/D 3.1% A/A 11.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 61.9% under_7.5 38.1% over_8.5 49.1%
under_8.5 50.9% over_9.5 36.8% under_9.5 63.2%
over_10.5 26.2% under_10.5 73.8% over_11.5 17.7%
under_11.5 82.3% over_12.5 11.4% under_12.5 88.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.4% under_3.5 36.6% over_4.5 46.9%
under_4.5 53.1% over_5.5 32.2% under_5.5 67.8%
team_away
over_3.5 55.0% under_3.5 45.0% over_4.5 38.1%
under_4.5 61.9% over_5.5 24.4% under_5.5 75.6%
most
home 50.1% draw 11.2% away 38.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.1% away_+3.5 79.9% home_-1.5 39.0%
away_+1.5 61.0% home_-0.5 50.1% away_+0.5 49.9%
home_+0.5 61.3% away_-0.5 38.7% home_+1.5 71.6%
away_-1.5 28.4% home_+3.5 87.1% away_-3.5 12.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 51.5% under_22.5 48.5% over_24.5 40.1%
under_24.5 59.9% over_26.5 29.8% under_26.5 70.3%
over_28.5 21.0% under_28.5 79.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 63.2% under_10.5 36.8% over_12.5 47.5%
under_12.5 52.5% over_14.5 33.3% under_14.5 66.8%
team_away
over_10.5 46.5% under_10.5 53.5% over_12.5 30.8%
under_12.5 69.2% over_14.5 18.8% under_14.5 81.2%
most
home 59.0% draw 5.7% away 35.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.5% away_+4.5 64.5% home_-2.5 47.1%
away_+2.5 52.9% home_-0.5 59.0% away_+0.5 41.0%
home_+0.5 64.7% away_-0.5 35.3% home_+2.5 75.1%
away_-2.5 24.9% home_+4.5 83.5% away_-4.5 16.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 65.6% under_6.5 34.4% over_7.5 53.7%
under_7.5 46.3% over_8.5 42.0% under_8.5 58.0%
over_9.5 31.6% under_9.5 68.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 59.0% under_3.5 41.1% over_4.5 42.9%
under_4.5 57.1% over_5.5 29.2% under_5.5 70.8%
team_away
over_3.5 49.0% under_3.5 51.0% over_4.5 32.8%
under_4.5 67.2% over_5.5 20.5% under_5.5 79.5%
most
home 50.9% draw 12.2% away 36.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.9% away_+2.5 72.1% home_-0.5 50.9%
away_+0.5 49.1% home_+0.5 63.1% away_-0.5 36.9%
home_+2.5 82.9% away_-2.5 17.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 87.5% under_2.5 12.5% over_3.5 73.4%
under_3.5 26.6% over_4.5 55.8% under_4.5 44.2%
over_5.5 38.3% under_5.5 61.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 63.8% under_1.5 36.2% over_2.5 36.9%
under_2.5 63.1%
team_away
over_1.5 77.3% under_1.5 22.7% over_2.5 53.6%
under_2.5 46.4%
most
home 29.9% draw 17.7% away 52.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.1% away_+1.5 83.9% home_-0.5 29.9%
away_+0.5 70.1% home_+0.5 47.6% away_-0.5 52.4%
home_+1.5 65.6% away_-1.5 34.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 90.7% under_20.5 9.3% over_22.5 83.3%
under_22.5 16.7% over_24.5 73.3% under_24.5 26.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 83.2% under_9.5 16.8% over_11.5 67.4%
under_11.5 32.7% over_13.5 48.9% under_13.5 51.1%
team_away
over_9.5 89.0% under_9.5 11.0% over_11.5 76.6%
under_11.5 23.4% over_13.5 60.1% under_13.5 39.9%
most
home 39.0% draw 6.4% away 54.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.1% away_+3.5 77.9% home_-0.5 39.0%
away_+0.5 61.1% home_+2.5 58.3% away_-2.5 41.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 18.9% no 81.1%
home
yes 9.7% no 90.3%
away
yes 10.2% no 89.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: OFI Crete predictions · Asteras Tripolis predictions · Super League Greece

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Super League GreeceOFI CreteAsteras TripolisTrack record