Super League Greece
Levadeiakos vs 
Olympiakos Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 71.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 86.5% for over 2.5 to 36.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.8%. Head to head on cards, Olympiakos are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 18.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 86.5% | 13.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 36.3% | 63.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
68.3%
42.0%
71.7%
46.1%
Card handicap
| Levadeiakos line | Levadeiakos | Olympiakos |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.9% | 78.1% |
| -0.5 | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| +0.5 | 56.5% | 43.6% |
| +1.5 | 73.5% | 26.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 90.1% | 9.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 82.4% | 17.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 72.1% | 27.9% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Levadeiakos vs Olympiakos. Slightly more cards are projected for Olympiakos for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
71.8%Over 3.5 cards23.4%Any red card68.3%Levadeiakos over 1.5 cards71.7%Olympiakos over 1.5 cards82.4%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Levadeiakos over 1.5 cards sits at 68.3% and Olympiakos at 71.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 23.4% (Levadeiakos 12.3%, Olympiakos 12.7%).
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Levadeiakos vs Olympiakos?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 71.8% for Levadeiakos vs Olympiakos.
Will there be a red card in Levadeiakos vs Olympiakos?
The model rates a red card for either side at 23.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Levadeiakos vs Olympiakos?
The model rates Olympiakos to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 18.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,399 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
