The numbers leave little room for romance here: Panathinaikos at 54% against Kalamata, Super League Greece, 20 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Panathinaikos higher (72%) than our model does. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. 3) Kalamata are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Form guide over the last six: Kalamata W1 D1 L2, Panathinaikos W4 D1 L1. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.08)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 8.5 corners46.2%@ 2.16
Kalamata or draw45.6%@ 2.19
Over 9.5 corners35.8%@ 2.79
Medium risk
Not both teams to score50.1%@ 2.00
Over 2.5 goals48.4%@ 2.07
Random finds
1-1 correct score12.1%@ 8.29
0-1 correct score11.8%@ 8.50
0-2 correct score10.4%@ 9.66
Model vs market
Kalamata
20.3%+11.9%
Draw
25.3%+5.5%
Panathinaikos
54.4%-17.4%
ModelMarket
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.08)
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely74.1%Fair 1.35
Over 2.5Close call48.4%Fair 2.07
BTTS · YesClose call49.9%Fair 2.00
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call46.2%Fair 2.16
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely35.8%Fair 2.79
Over 10.5 cornersLong shot26.8%Fair 3.73
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot19.4%Fair 5.15
Most cornersKalamata51.8%Panathinaikos36.7%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsClose call50.8%Fair 1.97
Over 24.5 shotsUnlikely39.5%Fair 2.53
Over 26.5 shotsLong shot29.2%Fair 3.43
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot20.5%Fair 4.87
Recent shot volume
Kalamata11.2 taken15.0 faced
Panathinaikos17.7 taken9.3 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.574.1%2.548.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.574.1%
Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.08).
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
BookmakerOur fair
Kalamata win9.504.93
Draw4.503.95
Panathinaikos win1.331.84
Over 2.5 goals1.802.07
Under 2.5 goals2.001.94
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Kalamata win4.94
Draw3.94
Panathinaikos win1.84
Both teams to score2.00
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.35
Over 2.5 goals2.06
Over 3.5 goals3.75
Kalamata most4.94
Panathinaikos most1.84
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.66
Over 8.5 corners2.11
Over 9.5 corners2.84
Over 10.5 corners4.04
Kalamata most1.92
Panathinaikos most2.72
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.12
Over 3.5 cards1.30
Over 4.5 cards1.67
Over 5.5 cards2.35
Kalamata most2.50
Panathinaikos most2.37
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.48
Over 7.5 SoT1.78
Over 8.5 SoT2.25
Over 9.5 SoT2.95
Kalamata most2.06
Panathinaikos most2.53
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.97
Over 24.5 shots2.53
Over 26.5 shots3.43
Over 28.5 shots4.87
Kalamata most1.71
Panathinaikos most2.79
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.07
Over 22.5 fouls1.14
Over 24.5 fouls1.26
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
50.8%
Over 24.5
39.5%
Over 26.5
29.2%
Over 28.5
20.5%
Most: Kalamata
58.4%
Most: Panathinaikos
35.8%
Kalamata Over 13.2
39.3%
Panathinaikos Over 13.2
24.3%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
67.8%
Over 7.5
56.1%
Over 8.5
44.5%
Over 9.5
33.9%
Most: Kalamata
48.5%
Most: Panathinaikos
39.5%
Kalamata Over 4.2
42.8%
Panathinaikos Over 4.2
36.4%
Cards
Over 2.5
89.4%
Over 3.5
76.6%
Over 4.5
60.0%
Most: Kalamata
39.9%
Most: Panathinaikos
42.2%
Kalamata Over 1.8
73.0%
Panathinaikos Over 1.8
74.2%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Kalamata clean sheet
18.6%
Panathinaikos clean sheet
39.1%
Kalamata win to nil
10.7%
Panathinaikos win to nil
31.1%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
20.3%
draw
25.4%
away
54.4%
double_chance
1X
45.6%
12
74.7%
X2
79.7%
dnb
home
27.1%
away
72.9%
btts
yes
49.9%
no
50.1%
clean_sheet
home
18.7%
away
39.4%
win_to_nil
home
10.7%
away
31.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1
13.2%
home_by_2
5.2%
home_by_3plus
1.8%
away_by_1
24.3%
away_by_2
16.9%
away_by_3plus
13.2%
correct_score
0-0
7.9%
0-1
11.8%
0-2
10.4%
0-3
5.8%
0-4
2.4%
0-5
0.8%
1-0
6.3%
1-1
12.1%
1-2
9.7%
1-3
5.4%
1-4
2.3%
1-5
0.8%
2-0
3.2%
2-1
5.4%
2-2
4.5%
2-3
2.5%
2-4
1.1%
2-5
0.4%
3-0
1.0%
3-1
1.7%
3-2
1.4%
3-3
0.8%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
4-1
0.4%
4-2
0.3%
4-3
0.2%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.0%
5-1
0.1%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.8%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
12.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
92.1%
under_0.5
7.9%
over_1.5
74.1%
under_1.5
26.0%
over_2.5
48.4%
under_2.5
51.6%
over_3.5
26.7%
under_3.5
73.4%
over_4.5
12.4%
under_4.5
87.6%
over_5.5
5.0%
under_5.5
95.0%
odd_even
odd
48.6%
even
51.4%
team_home
over_0.5
60.6%
under_0.5
39.4%
over_1.5
23.9%
under_1.5
76.1%
over_2.5
6.8%
under_2.5
93.2%
team_away
over_0.5
81.4%
under_0.5
18.7%
over_1.5
50.0%
under_1.5
50.0%
over_2.5
23.7%
under_2.5
76.3%
most
home
20.3%
draw
25.4%
away
54.4%
handicap
home_-2.5
1.8%
away_+2.5
98.2%
home_-1.5
7.0%
away_+1.5
93.0%
home_-0.5
20.3%
away_+0.5
79.7%
home_+0.5
45.6%
away_-0.5
54.4%
home_+1.5
69.9%
away_-1.5
30.1%
home_+2.5
86.8%
away_-2.5
13.2%
total_exact
exact_0
7.9%
exact_1
18.0%
exact_2
25.6%
exact_3
21.8%
exact_4
14.2%
exact_5
7.4%
exact_6
3.2%
exact_7plus
1.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
15.9%
draw
40.3%
away
43.8%
total
over_0.5
69.7%
under_0.5
30.3%
over_1.5
33.6%
under_1.5
66.4%
over_2.5
12.0%
under_2.5
88.1%
btts
yes
17.5%
no
82.5%
total_exact
exact_0
30.3%
exact_1
36.2%
exact_2
21.6%
exact_3
8.6%
exact_4plus
3.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
36.5%
draw
34.8%
away
28.7%
total
over_0.5
80.4%
under_0.5
19.6%
over_1.5
48.5%
under_1.5
51.5%
over_2.5
22.5%
under_2.5
77.5%
btts
yes
30.9%
no
69.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
11.9%
H/D
2.8%
H/A
1.2%
D/H
14.7%
D/D
14.0%
D/A
11.6%
A/H
4.1%
A/D
8.0%
A/A
31.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
60.3%
under_7.5
39.7%
over_8.5
47.3%
under_8.5
52.7%
over_9.5
35.2%
under_9.5
64.8%
over_10.5
24.8%
under_10.5
75.2%
over_11.5
16.5%
under_11.5
83.5%
over_12.5
10.5%
under_12.5
89.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
63.7%
under_3.5
36.3%
over_4.5
47.2%
under_4.5
52.8%
over_5.5
32.5%
under_5.5
67.5%
team_away
over_3.5
52.4%
under_3.5
47.6%
over_4.5
35.5%
under_4.5
64.5%
over_5.5
22.2%
under_5.5
77.8%
most
home
52.0%
draw
11.2%
away
36.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
21.2%
away_+3.5
78.8%
home_-1.5
40.7%
away_+1.5
59.4%
home_-0.5
52.0%
away_+0.5
48.0%
home_+0.5
63.2%
away_-0.5
36.8%
home_+1.5
73.4%
away_-1.5
26.6%
home_+3.5
88.3%
away_-3.5
11.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
50.8%
under_22.5
49.2%
over_24.5
39.5%
under_24.5
60.5%
over_26.5
29.2%
under_26.5
70.8%
over_28.5
20.5%
under_28.5
79.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
62.4%
under_10.5
37.6%
over_12.5
46.7%
under_12.5
53.3%
over_14.5
32.5%
under_14.5
67.5%
team_away
over_10.5
46.5%
under_10.5
53.6%
over_12.5
30.8%
under_12.5
69.3%
over_14.5
18.8%
under_14.5
81.2%
most
home
58.4%
draw
5.8%
away
35.9%
handicap
home_-4.5
34.9%
away_+4.5
65.1%
home_-2.5
46.5%
away_+2.5
53.5%
home_-0.5
58.4%
away_+0.5
41.6%
home_+0.5
64.1%
away_-0.5
35.9%
home_+2.5
74.7%
away_-2.5
25.4%
home_+4.5
83.2%
away_-4.5
16.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
67.8%
under_6.5
32.2%
over_7.5
56.1%
under_7.5
43.9%
over_8.5
44.5%
under_8.5
55.5%
over_9.5
33.9%
under_9.5
66.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
58.9%
under_3.5
41.1%
over_4.5
42.8%
under_4.5
57.2%
over_5.5
29.1%
under_5.5
70.9%
team_away
over_3.5
52.7%
under_3.5
47.3%
over_4.5
36.4%
under_4.5
63.6%
over_5.5
23.4%
under_5.5
76.6%
most
home
48.4%
draw
12.0%
away
39.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
26.2%
away_+2.5
73.9%
home_-0.5
48.4%
away_+0.5
51.6%
home_+0.5
60.5%
away_-0.5
39.5%
home_+2.5
80.7%
away_-2.5
19.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
89.4%
under_2.5
10.6%
over_3.5
76.6%
under_3.5
23.4%
over_4.5
60.0%
under_4.5
40.0%
over_5.5
42.5%
under_5.5
57.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
73.0%
under_1.5
27.0%
over_2.5
47.8%
under_2.5
52.2%
team_away
over_1.5
74.2%
under_1.5
25.8%
over_2.5
49.4%
under_2.5
50.6%
most
home
39.9%
draw
17.9%
away
42.2%
handicap
home_-1.5
24.0%
away_+1.5
76.0%
home_-0.5
39.9%
away_+0.5
60.1%
home_+0.5
57.8%
away_-0.5
42.2%
home_+1.5
74.1%
away_-1.5
25.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
93.5%
under_20.5
6.5%
over_22.5
87.7%
under_22.5
12.3%
over_24.5
79.3%
under_24.5
20.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
86.7%
under_9.5
13.3%
over_11.5
72.8%
under_11.5
27.2%
over_13.5
55.4%
under_13.5
44.6%
team_away
over_9.5
91.0%
under_9.5
9.0%
over_11.5
80.0%
under_11.5
20.0%
over_13.5
64.7%
under_13.5
35.3%
most
home
40.1%
draw
6.3%
away
53.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
23.2%
away_+3.5
76.8%
home_-0.5
40.1%
away_+0.5
59.9%
home_+2.5
59.1%
away_-2.5
40.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
38.8%
no
61.2%
home
yes
33.2%
no
66.8%
away
yes
8.4%
no
91.6%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Super League Greece
Kalamata
Panathinaikos