AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

League Two
NorthamptonNorthamptonDWLLD
Full time0-1Tue, 20 Oct 202620/1019:45UK
TranmereTranmereLDDLD

Northampton 0-1 Tranmere cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.9%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.1%

Result

Northampton0-1Tranmere
2 yellow cardsNorthampton 0, Tranmere 2
0 red cardsNorthampton 0, Tranmere 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 50.9% and it missed (2 in the match). We called No at 85.8% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards50.9%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Northampton vs Tranmere. It tips Tranmere for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 71.8% 28.2%
3.5 cards 50.9% 49.1%
4.5 cards 31.6% 68.4%
5.5 cards 17.2% 82.8%

Who picks up more cards

Northampton
30.2%
Level
21.0%
Tranmere
48.8%

Team cards lines

Northampton

Over 1.5
48.3%
Over 2.5
22.3%

Tranmere

Over 1.5
61.9%
Over 2.5
34.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Northampton's; Tranmere gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Northampton line Northampton Tranmere
-1.5 14.5% 85.5%
-0.5 30.2% 69.8%
+0.5 51.2% 48.8%
+1.5 71.5% 28.5%

Red card

Any red card14.2%
Northampton red card10.9%
Tranmere red card3.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 65.5% 34.5%
22.5 fouls 50.0% 50.0%
24.5 fouls 34.9% 65.1%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 50.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 71.8% for over 2.5 to 17.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.9%. Head to head on cards, Tranmere are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.8%, with a level count at 21.0%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Northampton over 1.5 cards sits at 48.3% and Tranmere at 61.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.2% (Northampton 10.9%, Tranmere 3.7%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

50.9%Over 3.5 cards
14.2%Any red card
48.8%Most cards: Tranmere
48.3%Northampton over 1.5 cards
61.9%Tranmere over 1.5 cards
50.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 50.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.2%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianTranmere are the pick to collect more cards at 48.8%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 50.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Northampton vs Tranmere?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 50.9% for Northampton vs Tranmere.
Will there be a red card in Northampton vs Tranmere?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Northampton vs Tranmere?
Before kickoff, the model rated Tranmere to pick up more cards at 48.8%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoNorthampton fixtures and statsTranmere fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.