Eredivisie
Nijmegen vs 
Go Ahead Eagles Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 35.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 57.5% for over 2.5 to 8.8% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.5%. On the card count, Go Ahead Eagles are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.2%, with a level count at 23.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 18.9% | 81.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 8.8% | 91.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
36.2%
13.9%
51.3%
25.3%
Card handicap
| Nijmegen line | Nijmegen | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.1% | 87.9% |
| -0.5 | 28.4% | 71.6% |
| +0.5 | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| +1.5 | 73.8% | 26.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 26.3% | 73.7% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Nijmegen cards per game11.7Nijmegen fouls per game0.8Go Ahead Eagles cards per game7.7Go Ahead Eagles fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles. It tips Go Ahead Eagles for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
35.4%Over 3.5 cards9.3%Any red card36.2%Nijmegen over 1.5 cards51.3%Go Ahead Eagles over 1.5 cards39.6%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Nijmegen over 1.5 cards sits at 36.2% and Go Ahead Eagles at 51.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.3% (Nijmegen 3.4%, Go Ahead Eagles 6.1%). This season Nijmegen have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Go Ahead Eagles 0.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 35.4% for Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles.
Will there be a red card in Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles?
The model rates a red card for either side at 9.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles?
The model rates Go Ahead Eagles to pick up more cards at 48.2%, with a level count at 23.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 7,318 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
