Eredivisie
Nijmegen vs 
Go Ahead Eagles Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 66.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 76.6% for over 22.5 to 44.8% for over 28.5, with over 28.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.8%. Between the two sides, Nijmegen are the model’s pick to have more shots at 68.2%, with a level count at 4.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 28.5 shots | 44.8% | 55.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
83.7%
72.1%
58.4%
59.2%
42.7%
28.3%
Shot handicap
| Nijmegen line | Nijmegen | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| -2.5 | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| -0.5 | 68.2% | 31.8% |
| +0.5 | 73.0% | 27.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 85.6% | 14.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 77.5% | 22.5% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 67.8% | 32.3% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 57.2% | 42.8% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
14.8Nijmegen shots per game11.2Nijmegen shots faced per game15.3Go Ahead Eagles shots per game16.5Go Ahead Eagles shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Nijmegen.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
66.9%Over 24.5 shots72.1%Nijmegen over 12.5 shots42.7%Go Ahead Eagles over 12.5 shots77.5%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Nijmegen over 12.5 shots sits at 72.1% and Go Ahead Eagles at 42.7%. This season Nijmegen have averaged 14.8 shots a game and Go Ahead Eagles 15.3.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 66.9% for Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles.
Which team will have more shots in Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles?
The model rates Nijmegen to take more shots at 68.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 2,757 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
