Valencia vs Sociedad: model prediction
La Liga
ValenciaLLLLW
SociedadLWDWL
Over 1.5 goals
Valencia or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Fairly pricedOutside trust zone (model prob 0.43, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Win probability · fair 2.33
Top signals
Model read
Our engine prices Valencia at 43% for 20 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Notably, the model is warmer on Valencia than the market (35%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 53%. For shots markets, Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld is the obvious watch at 0.9 on target per 90 in recent data. Recent form reads W1 D1 L4 for Valencia against W2 D1 L3 for Sociedad. The recent series reads 2 wins for Valencia, 1 draws and 2 for Sociedad over 5 games, 2.8 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: outside trust zone (model prob 0.43, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
43.0%+7.6%
27.9%+0.1%
29.2%-7.6%
outside trust zone (model prob 0.43, zone (0.45, 0.7))
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
4.0 / 5.0
5.0 / 7.2
Totals line guide
Discipline: Fairly priced. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.43, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Valencia 2 · 1 draws · Sociedad 2 · 2.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
ValenciaSociedad33.3%66.7%
16.7%50.0%
33.3%16.7%
League averages this season: 3.07 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 62.8% | Over 24.5 | 50.2% | Over 26.5 | 37.9% | Over 28.5 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Valencia | 65.4% | Most: Sociedad | 28.8% | ||||
| Valencia Over 13.2 | 50.9% | Sociedad Over 13.2 | 25.1% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 73.0% | Over 7.5 | 60.6% | Over 8.5 | 47.7% | Over 9.5 | 35.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Valencia | 54.8% | Most: Sociedad | 32.6% | ||||
| Valencia Over 4.2 | 49.9% | Sociedad Over 4.2 | 33.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 81.5% | Over 3.5 | 64.8% | Over 4.5 | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Valencia | 34.9% | Most: Sociedad | 46.4% | ||
| Valencia Over 1.8 | 60.6% | Sociedad Over 1.8 | 68.2% |
Valencia: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 2.13 | 0.9 | 0.14 | 42.8% | 38.1% | 8.3% |
| Umar Sadiq | 2.42 | 0.88 | 0.44 | 34.7% | 32.7% | 19.2% |
| Harvey Elliott | 4.16 | 0.76 | 0.19 | 15.4% | 23.4% | 4.1% |
| Raba | 2.2 | 0.71 | 0.35 | 33.2% | 35.5% | 18.0% |
| Hugo Duro | 1.68 | 0.63 | 0.43 | 33.2% | 29.2% | 24.0% |
Sociedad: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orri Óskarsson | 2.43 | 1.28 | 0.6 | 46.2% | 32.9% | 25.2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 2.2 | 0.95 | 0.42 | 53.8% | 53.4% | 28.9% |
| Arsen Zakharyan | 3.24 | 0.9 | 0.18 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 4.4% |
| Gonçalo Guedes | 2.46 | 0.88 | 0.3 | 36.4% | 36.0% | 14.3% |
| Luka Sucic | 2.06 | 0.64 | 0.17 | 33.5% | 37.8% | 10.3% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
| Valencia clean sheet | 31.0% |
|---|---|
| Sociedad clean sheet | 23.6% |
| Valencia win to nil | 23.0% |
| Sociedad win to nil | 15.6% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 42.7% | draw | 27.3% | away | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 70.0% | 12 | 72.7% | X2 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 58.7% | away | 41.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 53.2% | no | 46.8% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 31.1% | away | 23.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 23.1% | away | 15.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.8% | home_by_2 | 12.9% | home_by_3plus | 8.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 17.5% | away_by_2 | 8.5% | away_by_3plus | 4.0% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.0% | 0-1 | 8.0% | 0-2 | 5.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.0% | 0-4 | 0.6% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | 1-1 | 13.0% | 1-2 | 7.2% |
| 1-3 | 2.8% | 1-4 | 0.8% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.6% | 2-1 | 8.9% | 2-2 | 5.2% |
| 2-3 | 2.0% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 3.7% | 3-1 | 4.3% | 3-2 | 2.5% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.3% | 4-1 | 1.6% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.0% | under_0.5 | 8.0% | over_1.5 | 74.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 25.9% | over_2.5 | 48.4% | under_2.5 | 51.6% |
| over_3.5 | 26.7% | under_3.5 | 73.3% | over_4.5 | 12.4% |
| under_4.5 | 87.6% | over_5.5 | 5.0% | under_5.5 | 95.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 76.4% | under_0.5 | 23.7% | over_1.5 | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.7% | over_2.5 | 17.7% | under_2.5 | 82.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 68.9% | under_0.5 | 31.1% | over_1.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.4% | over_2.5 | 11.4% | under_2.5 | 88.6% |
most
| home | 42.7% | draw | 27.3% | away | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 8.0% | away_+2.5 | 92.0% | home_-1.5 | 20.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 79.1% | home_-0.5 | 42.7% | away_+0.5 | 57.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.0% | away_-0.5 | 30.0% | home_+1.5 | 87.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 12.5% | home_+2.5 | 96.0% | away_-2.5 | 4.0% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.0% | exact_1 | 17.9% | exact_2 | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.8% | exact_4 | 14.2% | exact_5 | 7.4% |
| exact_6 | 3.2% | exact_7plus | 1.8% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 25.5% | draw | 47.5% | away | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 61.9% | under_0.5 | 38.1% | over_1.5 | 25.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 74.9% | over_2.5 | 7.4% | under_2.5 | 92.6% |
btts
| yes | 14.6% | no | 85.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 38.1% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 17.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.7% | exact_4plus | 1.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 42.1% | draw | 33.1% | away | 24.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 82.2% | under_0.5 | 17.8% | over_1.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 48.4% | over_2.5 | 25.0% | under_2.5 | 75.0% |
btts
| yes | 32.4% | no | 67.6% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 20.2% | H/D | 3.8% | H/A | 1.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 20.0% | D/D | 15.7% | D/A | 11.8% |
| A/H | 3.8% | A/D | 6.0% | A/A | 17.2% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 72.5% | under_7.5 | 27.6% | over_8.5 | 60.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 39.3% | over_9.5 | 48.4% | under_9.5 | 51.6% |
| over_10.5 | 36.7% | under_10.5 | 63.3% | over_11.5 | 26.5% |
| under_11.5 | 73.6% | over_12.5 | 18.2% | under_12.5 | 81.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.9% | under_3.5 | 27.1% | over_4.5 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.7% | over_5.5 | 41.9% | under_5.5 | 58.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.7% | under_3.5 | 39.4% | over_4.5 | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.7% | over_5.5 | 28.4% | under_5.5 | 71.6% |
most
| home | 53.8% | draw | 10.8% | away | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.1% | away_+3.5 | 76.9% | home_-1.5 | 42.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.3% | home_-0.5 | 53.8% | away_+0.5 | 46.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.6% | away_-0.5 | 35.4% | home_+1.5 | 74.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 25.7% | home_+3.5 | 88.6% | away_-3.5 | 11.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 62.8% | under_22.5 | 37.2% | over_24.5 | 50.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 49.8% | over_26.5 | 37.9% | under_26.5 | 62.1% |
| over_28.5 | 26.9% | under_28.5 | 73.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 75.2% | under_10.5 | 24.8% | over_12.5 | 59.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 40.7% | over_14.5 | 42.8% | under_14.5 | 57.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 50.7% | under_10.5 | 49.3% | over_12.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.4% | over_14.5 | 18.8% | under_14.5 | 81.2% |
most
| home | 65.4% | draw | 5.7% | away | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 40.3% | away_+4.5 | 59.7% | home_-2.5 | 53.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 47.0% | home_-0.5 | 65.4% | away_+0.5 | 34.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.2% | away_-0.5 | 28.8% | home_+2.5 | 81.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 18.9% | home_+4.5 | 88.5% | away_-4.5 | 11.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 73.0% | under_6.5 | 27.0% | over_7.5 | 60.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 39.4% | over_8.5 | 47.7% | under_8.5 | 52.3% |
| over_9.5 | 35.5% | under_9.5 | 64.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 67.4% | under_3.5 | 32.6% | over_4.5 | 49.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.1% | over_5.5 | 33.7% | under_5.5 | 66.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 52.1% | under_3.5 | 47.9% | over_4.5 | 33.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 66.2% | over_5.5 | 19.7% | under_5.5 | 80.3% |
most
| home | 54.8% | draw | 12.7% | away | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.5% | away_+2.5 | 70.5% | home_-0.5 | 54.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 45.2% | home_+0.5 | 67.4% | away_-0.5 | 32.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.7% | away_-2.5 | 13.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 81.5% | under_2.5 | 18.5% | over_3.5 | 64.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 35.2% | over_4.5 | 46.4% | under_4.5 | 53.6% |
| over_5.5 | 30.0% | under_5.5 | 70.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 60.6% | under_1.5 | 39.4% | over_2.5 | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 68.2% | under_1.5 | 31.8% | over_2.5 | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 57.1% |
most
| home | 34.9% | draw | 18.8% | away | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.4% | away_+1.5 | 80.6% | home_-0.5 | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.1% | home_+0.5 | 53.6% | away_-0.5 | 46.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 71.3% | away_-1.5 | 28.7% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 75.1% | under_20.5 | 24.9% | over_22.5 | 62.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 37.8% | over_24.5 | 48.3% | under_24.5 | 51.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 69.1% | under_9.5 | 31.0% | over_11.5 | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 51.1% | over_13.5 | 30.2% | under_13.5 | 69.8% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 78.3% | under_9.5 | 21.7% | over_11.5 | 60.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 39.5% | over_13.5 | 41.5% | under_13.5 | 58.5% |
most
| home | 38.3% | draw | 6.9% | away | 54.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.4% | away_+3.5 | 79.6% | home_-0.5 | 38.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.7% | home_+2.5 | 59.1% | away_-2.5 | 40.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 17.1% | no | 82.9% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.3% | no | 93.7% |
|---|
away
| yes | 11.5% | no | 88.5% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Valencia predictions · Sociedad predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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