Eredivisie
Nijmegen vs 
Go Ahead Eagles Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 55.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 80.0% for over 7.5 to 27.0% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.4%. Between the two sides, Nijmegen are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 59.9%, with a level count at 9.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| 8.5 corners | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| 9.5 corners | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| 10.5 corners | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 11.5 corners | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| 12.5 corners | 27.0% | 73.0% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
79.9%
67.1%
53.2%
61.4%
45.0%
30.5%
Corner handicap
| Nijmegen line | Nijmegen | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 31.3% | 68.7% |
| -1.5 | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| -0.5 | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| +0.5 | 69.2% | 30.8% |
This season (2026/27)
5.0Nijmegen corners won per game3.2Nijmegen corners conceded per game5.8Go Ahead Eagles corners won per game4.3Go Ahead Eagles corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Nijmegen.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
58.9%Over 9.5 corners67.1%Nijmegen over 4.5 corners45.0%Go Ahead Eagles over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Nijmegen over 4.5 corners sits at 67.1% and Go Ahead Eagles at 45.0%. This season Nijmegen have averaged 5.0 corners won a game and Go Ahead Eagles 5.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 58.9% for Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles.
Which team will win the corner count in Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles?
The model rates Nijmegen to win the corner count at 59.9%, with a level count at 9.2%.
How many corners do Nijmegen and Go Ahead Eagles average this season?
Nijmegen have won 5.0 corners a game this season and Go Ahead Eagles 5.8.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,762 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
