Eredivisie
Nijmegen vs 
Go Ahead Eagles Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 69.8%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Nijmegen have averaged 2.0 scored and 2.0 conceded, Go Ahead Eagles 2.2 and 2.4 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 69.8% for over 2.5 and 87.9% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 goals a game. Nijmegen have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Go Ahead Eagles in 4 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 96.8% | 3.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 87.9% | 12.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 69.8% | 30.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 29.4% | 70.6% |
| 5.5 goals | 15.6% | 84.4% |
Team goal lines
86.7%
60.0%
32.9%
79.4%
46.9%
21.2%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 79.1% | 21.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 20.7% | 79.3% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 87.2% | 12.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 33.8% | 66.2% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Nijmegen goals scored per game2.0Nijmegen goals conceded per game100.0%Nijmegen Over 2.5 rate0.7Nijmegen 1st-half goals per game2.5Go Ahead Eagles goals scored per game2.2Go Ahead Eagles goals conceded per game83.3%Go Ahead Eagles Over 2.5 rate0.7Go Ahead Eagles 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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5+
In-depth analysis
69.3%Both Teams to Score69.8%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 69.8% for three or more goals and 87.9% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Nijmegen favoured at 47.7%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Nijmegen to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Nijmegen 1 · 2 draws · Go Ahead Eagles 2 · 3.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 69.8% for Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles.
Will there be a first-half goal in Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 79.1%.
How often have Nijmegen gone over 2.5 recently?
Nijmegen have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Go Ahead Eagles in 4 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 6,518 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
AI experts on Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts on this market, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| netbuilder v1.0 | Over 2.5 goals |
More Eredivisie, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
