AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

League Two
Newport CountyNewport CountyLDDWD
Full time1-0Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1015:00UK
ColchesterColchesterLLDDD

Newport County 1-0 Colchester cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55.4%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined44.6%

Result

Newport County1-0Colchester
3 yellow cardsNewport County 0, Colchester 3
0 red cardsNewport County 0, Colchester 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 55.4% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 88.2% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards55.4%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Oliver Mackey

Recorded match referee.

Oliver Mackey in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 20 3
Goals 3.35 Not available
Yellow cards 3.85 Not available
Red cards 0.10 Not available
Corners 10.4 Not available
Fouls 25.1 Not available
Both teams scored 65% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 75% Not available
Home wins 45% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
20 Oct 2026 Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town 4-2 6 Yes 5 0 11 28
10 Oct 2026 Newport County vs Colchester 1-0 1 No 3 0 9 35
1 Sep 2026 Crewe vs Walsall 2-2 4 Yes 2 0 13 25
18 Apr 2026 Gillingham vs Grimsby 1-4 5 Yes 3 0 8 20
3 Apr 2026 Accrington vs Crewe 2-0 2 No 4 0 11 27
14 Mar 2026 Barnet vs Newport County 1-2 3 Yes 3 0 11 29
27 Jan 2026 Harrogate vs Fleetwood Town 1-2 3 Yes 5 0 11 20
29 Dec 2025 Walsall vs Oldham 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 11 28
11 Oct 2025 Chesterfield vs Salford 2-0 2 No 5 0 11 25
4 Oct 2025 Notts County vs Oldham 3-1 4 Yes 2 0 11 14

Oliver Mackey referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Newport County vs Colchester. The model leans toward Colchester for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.2% 24.8%
3.5 cards 55.4% 44.6%
4.5 cards 35.9% 64.1%
5.5 cards 20.5% 79.5%

Who picks up more cards

Newport County
34.8%
Level
20.7%
Colchester
44.5%

Team cards lines

Newport County

Over 1.5
55.0%
Over 2.5
28.1%

Colchester

Over 1.5
61.8%
Over 2.5
34.8%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Newport County's; Colchester gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Newport County line Newport County Colchester
-1.5 18.0% 82.0%
-0.5 34.8% 65.2%
+0.5 55.5% 44.5%
+1.5 74.6% 25.4%

Red card

Any red card11.8%
Newport County red card5.7%
Colchester red card6.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 75.6% 24.4%
22.5 fouls 61.7% 38.3%
24.5 fouls 46.7% 53.3%
Newport CountyNewport County

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Newport County at home and Colchester away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ColchesterColchester
Statistic
Newport County
Colchester
Cards per game at this venue
1.5
0.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
3.5
2.3

Yellow cards per game
1.8
0.9

Red cards this season
0
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 55.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.2% for over 2.5 to 20.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.4%. On the card count, Colchester are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.5%, with a level count at 20.7%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Newport County over 1.5 cards sits at 55.0% and Colchester at 61.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.8% (Newport County 5.7%, Colchester 6.4%). This season Newport County have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Colchester 1.0.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

55.4%Over 3.5 cards
11.8%Any red card
44.5%Most cards: Colchester
55.0%Newport County over 1.5 cards
61.8%Colchester over 1.5 cards
61.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 11.8%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianColchester are the pick to collect more cards at 44.5%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 55.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Newport CountyNewport County

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ColchesterColchester
Statistic
Newport County
Colchester
cards per game
1.8
1.0

fouls per game
12.2
11.1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Newport County vs Colchester?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 55.4% for Newport County vs Colchester.
Will there be a red card in Newport County vs Colchester?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 11.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Newport County vs Colchester?
Before kickoff, the model rated Colchester to pick up more cards at 44.5%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More League Two, Cards

Barnet vs York predictionNewport County vs Chesterfield cards predictionGrimsby vs York cards predictionPort Vale vs Rochdale cards predictionAccrington vs Northampton cards predictionColchester vs Walsall cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

League TwoNewport County fixtures and statsColchester fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.