AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 2 Nov 2026

Serie A
NapoliNapoliWLDWL
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1111:30UK19°C · Cloudy
LazioLazioWWWWW

Napoli vs Lazio cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.8%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards50.2%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Napoli vs Lazio. The model leans toward Lazio for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 70.3% 29.7%
3.5 cards 50.2% 49.8%
4.5 cards 32.0% 68.0%
5.5 cards 18.3% 81.7%

Who picks up more cards

Napoli
32.7%
Level
20.6%
Lazio
46.7%

Team cards lines

Napoli

Over 1.5
48.8%
Over 2.5
24.0%

Lazio

Over 1.5
59.1%
Over 2.5
33.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Napoli's; Lazio gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Napoli line Napoli Lazio
-1.5 16.7% 83.3%
-0.5 32.7% 67.3%
+0.5 53.3% 46.7%
+1.5 72.5% 27.5%

Red card

Any red card22.9%
Napoli red card13.8%
Lazio red card10.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 60.6% 39.4%
22.5 fouls 47.1% 52.9%
24.5 fouls 34.3% 65.7%
NapoliNapoli

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Napoli at home and Lazio away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

LazioLazio
Statistic
Napoli
Lazio
Yellow cards per game
0.9
1.9

First-half yellow cards per game
·
0.9

Second-half yellow cards per game
·
1.0

Matches with card data
5
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
51,078Matches graded

In 11,388 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 2 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 58.7%✓ 56.2%✓ 59.8%✓ 75.9%✗ 61.0%✓ 62.7%✓ 62.4%✗ 57.2%✗ 52.3%✓ 58.0%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Liverpool vs Arsenal2026-11-01Under 3.5 58.7%Miss
Union Berlin vs FC Koln2026-11-01Over 3.5 56.2%Hit
Ein Frankfurt vs Hamburg2026-11-01Over 3.5 59.8%Hit
Getafe vs Sevilla2026-11-01Over 3.5 75.9%Hit
Santander vs Real Madrid2026-11-01Over 3.5 61.0%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 50.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 70.3% for over 2.5 to 18.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.2%. Head to head on cards, Lazio are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.7%, with a level count at 20.6%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Napoli over 1.5 cards sits at 48.8% and Lazio at 59.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 22.9% (Napoli 13.8%, Lazio 10.5%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

50.2%Over 3.5 cards
22.9%Any red card
46.7%Most cards: Lazio
48.8%Napoli over 1.5 cards
59.1%Lazio over 1.5 cards
47.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 50.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 22.9%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianLazio are the pick to collect more cards at 46.7%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 50.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
NapoliNapoli

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

LazioLazio
Statistic
Napoli
Lazio
fouls per game
8.9
12.3

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Napoli vs Lazio?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 50.2% for Napoli vs Lazio.
Will there be a red card in Napoli vs Lazio?
The model rates a red card for either side at 22.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Napoli vs Lazio?
The model rates Lazio to pick up more cards at 46.7%, with a level count at 20.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Serie ANapoli fixtures and statsLazio fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.