Ligue 2
Montpellier vs Pau FC Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 41.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 54.6% for over 22.5 to 20.3% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.6%. On the shot count, Montpellier are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.8%, with a level count at 6.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| 28.5 shots | 20.3% | 79.7% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
67.6%
50.2%
33.8%
48.3%
30.4%
17.1%
Shot handicap
| Montpellier line | Montpellier | Pau FC |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| -2.5 | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| -0.5 | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| +0.5 | 67.0% | 33.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 74.9% | 25.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 39.7% | 60.3% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
13.8Montpellier shots per game13.4Montpellier shots faced per game14.2Pau FC shots per game11.0Pau FC shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Montpellier.
In-depth analysis
41.7%Over 24.5 shots50.2%Montpellier over 12.5 shots30.4%Pau FC over 12.5 shots63.5%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Montpellier over 12.5 shots sits at 50.2% and Pau FC at 30.4%. This season Montpellier have averaged 13.8 shots a game and Pau FC 14.2.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Montpellier vs Pau FC?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 41.7% for Montpellier vs Pau FC.
Which team will have more shots in Montpellier vs Pau FC?
The model rates Montpellier to take more shots at 60.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 2, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.