Dijon vs Laval prediction & probabilities (2026-09-11)

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Dijon vs Laval: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

Ligue 2
Dijon

DLDLD

Fri, 11 Sep 202619:00UK
Laval

LWDLL

Model’s top convictions

71%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Dijon or draw

63%

Draw or Laval

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.23).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
DijonWin probability
36.6%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals71.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.41
Dijon or draw65.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.53
Draw or Laval63.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.58

Model read

▾

"37% on Dijon is a measurement, not a promise." Little between these two in the data. Dijon at 37% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 11 September 2026. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Dijon at 48%. Caution noted. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 44% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 51%. Form guide over the last six: Dijon W0 D3 L3, Laval W2 D1 L3. Dijon are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The recent series reads 2 wins for Dijon, 1 draws and 2 for Laval over 5 games, 2.6 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals44.4%@ 2.25
Over 9.5 corners43.0%@ 2.33
Laval win34.8%@ 2.87
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals55.6%@ 1.80
Over 8.5 corners54.0%@ 1.85
Both teams to score50.6%@ 1.98
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.6%@ 7.36
1-0 correct score10.1%@ 9.94
0-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.27

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Dijon

36.6%-11.6%

Draw

28.6%+0.2%

Laval

34.8%+11.4%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.571.0%

Strong chance

Over 2.544.4%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes50.6%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.554.0%

Good chance

Over 9.543.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.532.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.3%

Low chance

Most cornersDijon55.5%Laval33.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.552.9%

Good chance

Over 24.540.0%

Toss-up

Over 26.528.5%

Low chance

Over 28.519.0%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Dijon13.5 taken13.5 faced
Laval11.7 taken13.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.0%2.544.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.571.0%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23).

Form & head-to-head

DijonDLDLD
LavalLWDLL

Last 5 meetings: Dijon 2 · 1 draws · Laval 2 · 2.6 goals/game.

2023-01-31Laval 1-0 Dijon
2022-12-26Dijon 5-0 Laval
2016-02-19Laval 2-2 Dijon
2015-09-26Dijon 2-0 Laval
2015-01-16Laval 1-0 Dijon

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

DijonLaval
League position#18 of 18#17 of 18
Record W-D-L0-3-21-1-3
Current streakD1L2
Points per game0.600.80
Record, home vs away0-0-20-1-1
Goals scored per game1.001.00
Goals conceded per game1.402.00
1st half goals per game0.200.20
2nd half goals per game0.800.80
Corners won per game4.25.2
Cards per game1.61.8
Fouls per game15.012.6
Red cards this season01
Shots per game14.211.2
Shots faced per game14.615.2
Shots on target per game6.43.2
Over 2.5 rate

20.0%80.0%

BTTS rate

80.0%80.0%

Clean sheets

0.0%0.0%

Rates this season:DijonLaval

League averages this season: 2.56 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 44% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Dijon win1.902.73
Draw3.103.50
Laval win3.702.87
Over 2.5 goals1.832.25
Under 2.5 goals1.981.80

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Dijon win2.73
Draw3.50
Laval win2.87
Both teams to score1.98

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.41
Over 2.5 goals2.25
Over 3.5 goals4.30
Dijon most2.73
Laval most2.87

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.47
Over 8.5 corners1.80
Over 9.5 corners2.31
Over 10.5 corners3.11
Dijon most1.80
Laval most3.00

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.38
Over 3.5 cards1.94
Over 4.5 cards3.11
Over 5.5 cards5.66
Dijon most2.81
Laval most2.33

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.38
Over 7.5 SoT1.65
Over 8.5 SoT2.07
Over 9.5 SoT2.73
Dijon most1.71
Laval most3.35

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.89
Over 24.5 shots2.50
Over 26.5 shots3.51
Over 28.5 shots5.27
Dijon most1.54
Laval most3.44

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.11
Over 22.5 fouls1.22
Over 24.5 fouls1.41
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 52.9% Over 24.5 40.0% Over 26.5 28.5% Over 28.5 19.0%
Most: Dijon 64.9% Most: Laval 29.1%
Dijon Over 13.2 43.4% Laval Over 13.2 19.6%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 72.4% Over 7.5 60.5% Over 8.5 48.2% Over 9.5 36.6%
Most: Dijon 58.3% Most: Laval 29.8%
Dijon Over 4.2 52.4% Laval Over 4.2 31.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.2% Over 3.5 51.6% Over 4.5 32.2%
Most: Dijon 35.6% Most: Laval 43.0%
Dijon Over 1.8 53.1% Laval Over 1.8 58.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Dijon clean sheet 29.8%
Laval clean sheet 28.7%
Dijon win to nil 20.6%
Laval win to nil 19.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 36.6% draw 28.6% away 34.8%
double_chance
1X 65.2% 12 71.4% X2 63.4%
dnb
home 51.3% away 48.7%
btts
yes 50.6% no 49.4%
clean_sheet
home 29.9% away 28.8%
win_to_nil
home 20.6% away 19.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.4% home_by_2 10.7% home_by_3plus 5.5%
away_by_1 19.8% away_by_2 10.1% away_by_3plus 5.0%
correct_score
0-0 9.3% 0-1 9.7% 0-2 6.3%
0-3 2.5% 0-4 0.8% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 10.1% 1-1 13.6% 1-2 7.8%
1-3 3.2% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 6.7% 2-1 8.1% 2-2 4.9%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 2.8% 3-1 3.4% 3-2 2.0%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.9% 4-1 1.0% 4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.8% under_0.5 9.3% over_1.5 71.0%
under_1.5 29.0% over_2.5 44.4% under_2.5 55.6%
over_3.5 23.3% under_3.5 76.7% over_4.5 10.3%
under_4.5 89.7% over_5.5 3.9% under_5.5 96.1%
odd_even
odd 48.3% even 51.7%
team_home
over_0.5 71.2% under_0.5 28.8% over_1.5 35.4%
under_1.5 64.6% over_2.5 13.1% under_2.5 86.9%
team_away
over_0.5 70.1% under_0.5 29.9% over_1.5 34.0%
under_1.5 66.0% over_2.5 12.2% under_2.5 87.8%
most
home 36.6% draw 28.6% away 34.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.5% away_+2.5 94.5% home_-1.5 16.2%
away_+1.5 83.8% home_-0.5 36.6% away_+0.5 63.4%
home_+0.5 65.2% away_-0.5 34.8% home_+1.5 85.0%
away_-1.5 15.0% home_+2.5 95.1% away_-2.5 5.0%
total_exact
exact_0 9.3% exact_1 19.8% exact_2 26.5%
exact_3 21.2% exact_4 13.0% exact_5 6.4%
exact_6 2.6% exact_7plus 1.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.3% draw 50.6% away 21.0%
total
over_0.5 57.3% under_0.5 42.7% over_1.5 21.0%
under_1.5 79.0% over_2.5 5.5% under_2.5 94.5%
btts
yes 11.9% no 88.1%
total_exact
exact_0 42.7% exact_1 36.3% exact_2 15.5%
exact_3 4.4% exact_4plus 1.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.5% draw 34.8% away 24.7%
total
over_0.5 79.8% under_0.5 20.3% over_1.5 47.4%
under_1.5 52.6% over_2.5 21.6% under_2.5 78.4%
btts
yes 29.4% no 70.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.5% H/D 4.3% H/A 1.6%
D/H 20.5% D/D 17.7% D/A 12.5%
A/H 2.8% A/D 4.8% A/A 13.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 67.8% under_7.5 32.2% over_8.5 55.6%
under_8.5 44.4% over_9.5 43.3% under_9.5 56.7%
over_10.5 32.1% under_10.5 67.9% over_11.5 22.6%
under_11.5 77.4% over_12.5 15.2% under_12.5 84.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.1% under_3.5 28.9% over_4.5 55.3%
under_4.5 44.7% over_5.5 40.0% under_5.5 60.0%
team_away
over_3.5 55.7% under_3.5 44.3% over_4.5 38.3%
under_4.5 61.7% over_5.5 24.2% under_5.5 75.8%
most
home 55.7% draw 11.0% away 33.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.0% away_+3.5 76.1% home_-1.5 44.3%
away_+1.5 55.7% home_-0.5 55.7% away_+0.5 44.3%
home_+0.5 66.6% away_-0.5 33.4% home_+1.5 76.3%
away_-1.5 23.7% home_+3.5 90.1% away_-3.5 9.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 52.9% under_22.5 47.1% over_24.5 40.0%
under_24.5 60.0% over_26.5 28.5% under_26.5 71.5%
over_28.5 19.0% under_28.5 81.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 69.0% under_10.5 31.0% over_12.5 51.8%
under_12.5 48.2% over_14.5 35.4% under_14.5 64.6%
team_away
over_10.5 43.8% under_10.5 56.2% over_12.5 26.4%
under_12.5 73.6% over_14.5 14.2% under_14.5 85.8%
most
home 64.9% draw 6.0% away 29.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 38.7% away_+4.5 61.3% home_-2.5 51.9%
away_+2.5 48.1% home_-0.5 64.9% away_+0.5 35.1%
home_+0.5 70.9% away_-0.5 29.1% home_+2.5 81.2%
away_-2.5 18.8% home_+4.5 88.9% away_-4.5 11.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 72.4% under_6.5 27.6% over_7.5 60.5%
under_7.5 39.5% over_8.5 48.2% under_8.5 51.8%
over_9.5 36.6% under_9.5 63.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.7% under_3.5 31.3% over_4.5 52.4%
under_4.5 47.6% over_5.5 37.0% under_5.5 63.0%
team_away
over_3.5 49.0% under_3.5 51.0% over_4.5 31.7%
under_4.5 68.3% over_5.5 18.6% under_5.5 81.4%
most
home 58.3% draw 11.8% away 29.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.8% away_+2.5 66.2% home_-0.5 58.3%
away_+0.5 41.7% home_+0.5 70.2% away_-0.5 29.8%
home_+2.5 87.8% away_-2.5 12.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.3% under_2.5 27.8% over_3.5 51.6%
under_3.5 48.4% over_4.5 32.2% under_4.5 67.8%
over_5.5 17.7% under_5.5 82.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 53.1% under_1.5 46.9% over_2.5 26.4%
under_2.5 73.6%
team_away
over_1.5 58.5% under_1.5 41.5% over_2.5 31.4%
under_2.5 68.6%
most
home 35.6% draw 21.4% away 43.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.3% away_+1.5 81.7% home_-0.5 35.6%
away_+0.5 64.4% home_+0.5 57.0% away_-0.5 43.0%
home_+1.5 76.1% away_-1.5 23.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 90.2% under_20.5 9.8% over_22.5 82.0%
under_22.5 18.0% over_24.5 70.9% under_24.5 29.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 86.5% under_9.5 13.5% over_11.5 71.5%
under_11.5 28.5% over_13.5 52.5% under_13.5 47.5%
team_away
over_9.5 86.0% under_9.5 14.0% over_11.5 70.5%
under_11.5 29.5% over_13.5 51.4% under_13.5 48.6%
most
home 47.3% draw 7.0% away 45.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.7% away_+3.5 72.3% home_-0.5 47.3%
away_+0.5 52.7% home_+2.5 67.6% away_-2.5 32.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 10.4% no 89.6%
home
yes 4.7% no 95.3%
away
yes 6.1% no 94.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Dijon predictions · Laval predictions · Ligue 2

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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More on this match

Ligue 2DijonLavalTrack record