Ligue 2
Montpellier vs Pau FC Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 53.5%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Montpellier have averaged 0.8 scored and 0.8 conceded, Pau FC 0.8 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 46.5% for over 2.5 and 72.5% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 0.5 goals a game. Montpellier have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Pau FC in 1 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.5% | 8.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| 3.5 goals | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| 4.5 goals | 11.4% | 88.6% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.5% | 95.5% |
Team goal lines
79.1%
46.4%
20.8%
62.0%
25.3%
7.5%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 68.4% | 31.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 11.0% | 89.0% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 72.9% | 27.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 14.4% | 85.6% |
This season (2026/27)
0.8Montpellier goals scored per game0.8Montpellier goals conceded per game20.0%Montpellier Over 2.5 rate0.2Montpellier 1st-half goals per game0.8Pau FC goals scored per game1.0Pau FC goals conceded per game20.0%Pau FC Over 2.5 rate0.6Pau FC 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
49.6%Both Teams to Score46.5%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 46.5% for three or more goals and 72.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Montpellier favoured at 50.6%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Montpellier to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Montpellier 0 · 1 draws · Pau FC 1 · 0.5 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Montpellier vs Pau FC?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 46.5% for Montpellier vs Pau FC.
Will there be a first-half goal in Montpellier vs Pau FC?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 68.4%.
How often have Montpellier gone over 2.5 recently?
Montpellier have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Pau FC in 1 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,656 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 2, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.