Montpellier vs Pau FC prediction & probabilities (2026-09-11)

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Montpellier vs Pau FC: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

Ligue 2
Montpellier

DWWDL

Fri, 11 Sep 202619:00UK
Pau FC

LWLDD

Model’s top convictions

77%

Montpellier or draw

73%

Over 1.5 goals

53%

Under 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.009 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
MontpellierWin probability
50.6%
Top 3 convictions

Montpellier or draw77.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Over 1.5 goals72.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.38
Under 2.5 goals53.5%Good chancePays @ 1.87

Model read

▾

"When model and market disagree on Montpellier, that gap is the story." A measured edge to Montpellier: 51% is the model's line for this Ligue 2 meeting on 11 September 2026. The market broadly agrees, pricing Montpellier at 51%. Totals sit close to the fence: 46% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. History adds colour: across the last 2 meetings it is 0 wins for Montpellier, 1 draws and 1 for Pau FC at 0.5 goals per match. Form guide over the last six: Montpellier W2 D3 L1, Pau FC W1 D2 L3. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.009 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals46.5%@ 2.15
Over 9.5 corners42.4%@ 2.36
Over 10.5 corners32.4%@ 3.09
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners53.4%@ 1.87
Not both teams to score50.4%@ 1.98
Draw or Pau FC49.3%@ 2.03
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.6%@ 7.94
1-0 correct score11.9%@ 8.44
2-0 correct score9.7%@ 10.27

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Montpellier

50.6%-0.3%

Draw

26.5%-0.8%

Pau FC

22.8%+0.9%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.009 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.572.5%

Strong chance

Over 2.546.5%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes49.6%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.553.4%

Good chance

Over 9.542.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.532.4%

Toss-up

Over 11.523.9%

Low chance

Most cornersMontpellier58.0%Pau FC31.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.554.6%

Good chance

Over 24.541.7%

Toss-up

Over 26.530.0%

Toss-up

Over 28.520.3%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Montpellier12.8 taken14.0 faced
Pau FC13.7 taken11.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.572.5%2.546.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.572.5%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.009 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

MontpellierDWWDL
Pau FCLWLDD

Last 2 meetings: Montpellier 0 · 1 draws · Pau FC 1 · 0.5 goals/game.

2026-03-20Pau FC 0-0 Montpellier
2025-12-06Montpellier 0-1 Pau FC

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

MontpellierPau FC
League position#5 of 18#12 of 18
Record W-D-L2-2-11-2-2
Current streakL1D2
Points per game1.601.00
Record, home vs away0-2-01-1-0
Goals scored per game0.800.80
Goals conceded per game0.801.00
1st half goals per game0.200.60
2nd half goals per game0.600.20
Corners won per game5.64.8
Cards per game2.82.0
Fouls per game20.214.8
Red cards this season00
Shots per game13.814.2
Shots faced per game13.411.0
Shots on target per game4.83.2
Over 2.5 rate

20.0%20.0%

BTTS rate

40.0%40.0%

Clean sheets

60.0%20.0%

Rates this season:MontpellierPau FC

League averages this season: 2.56 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 44% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Montpellier win1.801.98
Draw3.203.77
Pau FC win3.904.39
Over 2.5 goals2.052.15
Under 2.5 goals1.751.87

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Montpellier win1.97
Draw3.77
Pau FC win4.38
Both teams to score2.02

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.38
Over 2.5 goals2.15
Over 3.5 goals4.00
Montpellier most1.97
Pau FC most4.38

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.49
Over 8.5 corners1.82
Over 9.5 corners2.34
Over 10.5 corners3.18
Montpellier most1.72
Pau FC most3.22

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.32
Over 3.5 cards1.77
Over 4.5 cards2.72
Over 5.5 cards4.71
Montpellier most2.97
Pau FC most2.18

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.33
Over 7.5 SoT1.57
Over 8.5 SoT1.94
Over 9.5 SoT2.52
Montpellier most1.83
Pau FC most3.00

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.83
Over 24.5 shots2.40
Over 26.5 shots3.33
Over 28.5 shots4.92
Montpellier most1.64
Pau FC most3.03

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.07
Over 22.5 fouls1.15
Over 24.5 fouls1.29
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 54.6% Over 24.5 41.7% Over 26.5 30.0% Over 28.5 20.3%
Most: Montpellier 60.8% Most: Pau FC 33.0%
Montpellier Over 13.2 41.7% Pau FC Over 13.2 23.1%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 74.9% Over 7.5 63.5% Over 8.5 51.4% Over 9.5 39.7%
Most: Montpellier 54.7% Most: Pau FC 33.3%
Montpellier Over 4.2 52.2% Pau FC Over 4.2 36.6%

Cards

Over 2.5 76.0% Over 3.5 56.4% Over 4.5 36.8%
Most: Montpellier 33.7% Most: Pau FC 45.8%
Montpellier Over 1.8 54.8% Pau FC Over 1.8 63.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Montpellier clean sheet 37.8%
Pau FC clean sheet 20.9%
Montpellier win to nil 29.3%
Pau FC win to nil 12.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 50.6% draw 26.6% away 22.8%
double_chance
1X 77.2% 12 73.5% X2 49.4%
dnb
home 68.9% away 31.1%
btts
yes 49.6% no 50.4%
clean_sheet
home 38.0% away 20.9%
win_to_nil
home 29.5% away 12.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.9% home_by_2 15.7% home_by_3plus 11.0%
away_by_1 14.6% away_by_2 6.0% away_by_3plus 2.2%
correct_score
0-0 8.6% 0-1 7.1% 0-2 3.7%
0-3 1.2% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 11.9% 1-1 12.6% 1-2 5.8%
1-3 1.9% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.7% 2-1 9.4% 2-2 4.6%
2-3 1.5% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.1% 3-1 4.9% 3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 2.0% 4-1 1.9% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.6% 5-1 0.6% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.5% under_0.5 8.6% over_1.5 72.5%
under_1.5 27.5% over_2.5 46.5% under_2.5 53.5%
over_3.5 25.0% under_3.5 75.0% over_4.5 11.4%
under_4.5 88.6% over_5.5 4.5% under_5.5 95.5%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 79.1% under_0.5 20.9% over_1.5 46.4%
under_1.5 53.6% over_2.5 20.8% under_2.5 79.2%
team_away
over_0.5 62.0% under_0.5 38.0% over_1.5 25.3%
under_1.5 74.7% over_2.5 7.5% under_2.5 92.5%
most
home 50.6% draw 26.6% away 22.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 11.0% away_+2.5 89.0% home_-1.5 26.7%
away_+1.5 73.3% home_-0.5 50.6% away_+0.5 49.4%
home_+0.5 77.2% away_-0.5 22.8% home_+1.5 91.8%
away_-1.5 8.3% home_+2.5 97.8% away_-2.5 2.2%
total_exact
exact_0 8.6% exact_1 18.9% exact_2 26.1%
exact_3 21.5% exact_4 13.6% exact_5 6.9%
exact_6 2.9% exact_7plus 1.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 33.6% draw 42.8% away 23.6%
total
over_0.5 68.4% under_0.5 31.7% over_1.5 31.9%
under_1.5 68.1% over_2.5 11.0% under_2.5 89.0%
btts
yes 18.8% no 81.2%
total_exact
exact_0 31.7% exact_1 36.4% exact_2 20.9%
exact_3 8.0% exact_4plus 3.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 46.5% draw 37.9% away 15.7%
total
over_0.5 72.9% under_0.5 27.1% over_1.5 37.5%
under_1.5 62.5% over_2.5 14.4% under_2.5 85.6%
btts
yes 19.6% no 80.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 29.6% H/D 3.3% H/A 0.7%
D/H 19.9% D/D 16.2% D/A 6.7%
A/H 3.4% A/D 6.0% A/A 14.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 67.3% under_7.5 32.8% over_8.5 54.9%
under_8.5 45.1% over_9.5 42.7% under_9.5 57.3%
over_10.5 31.5% under_10.5 68.5% over_11.5 22.1%
under_11.5 77.9% over_12.5 14.8% under_12.5 85.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.2% under_3.5 27.8% over_4.5 56.6%
under_4.5 43.4% over_5.5 41.3% under_5.5 58.7%
team_away
over_3.5 53.3% under_3.5 46.8% over_4.5 35.9%
under_4.5 64.1% over_5.5 22.1% under_5.5 77.9%
most
home 58.2% draw 10.8% away 31.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.8% away_+3.5 74.2% home_-1.5 46.7%
away_+1.5 53.3% home_-0.5 58.2% away_+0.5 41.8%
home_+0.5 69.0% away_-0.5 31.0% home_+1.5 78.4%
away_-1.5 21.6% home_+3.5 91.3% away_-3.5 8.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 54.6% under_22.5 45.4% over_24.5 41.7%
under_24.5 58.3% over_26.5 30.0% under_26.5 70.0%
over_28.5 20.3% under_28.5 79.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 67.6% under_10.5 32.4% over_12.5 50.2%
under_12.5 49.8% over_14.5 33.8% under_14.5 66.2%
team_away
over_10.5 48.3% under_10.5 51.7% over_12.5 30.4%
under_12.5 69.6% over_14.5 17.1% under_14.5 82.9%
most
home 60.8% draw 6.2% away 33.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.9% away_+4.5 65.1% home_-2.5 47.7%
away_+2.5 52.3% home_-0.5 60.8% away_+0.5 39.2%
home_+0.5 67.0% away_-0.5 33.0% home_+2.5 78.0%
away_-2.5 22.0% home_+4.5 86.5% away_-4.5 13.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 74.9% under_6.5 25.1% over_7.5 63.5%
under_7.5 36.5% over_8.5 51.4% under_8.5 48.6%
over_9.5 39.7% under_9.5 60.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.5% under_3.5 31.5% over_4.5 52.2%
under_4.5 47.8% over_5.5 36.8% under_5.5 63.2%
team_away
over_3.5 54.2% under_3.5 45.8% over_4.5 36.6%
under_4.5 63.4% over_5.5 22.6% under_5.5 77.4%
most
home 54.7% draw 11.9% away 33.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 31.0% away_+2.5 69.0% home_-0.5 54.7%
away_+0.5 45.3% home_+0.5 66.7% away_-0.5 33.3%
home_+2.5 85.3% away_-2.5 14.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 76.0% under_2.5 24.0% over_3.5 56.4%
under_3.5 43.6% over_4.5 36.8% under_4.5 63.2%
over_5.5 21.3% under_5.5 78.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 54.8% under_1.5 45.2% over_2.5 27.9%
under_2.5 72.1%
team_away
over_1.5 63.3% under_1.5 36.7% over_2.5 36.4%
under_2.5 63.6%
most
home 33.7% draw 20.5% away 45.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.3% away_+1.5 82.7% home_-0.5 33.7%
away_+0.5 66.3% home_+0.5 54.2% away_-0.5 45.8%
home_+1.5 73.4% away_-1.5 26.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 93.3% under_20.5 6.7% over_22.5 87.0%
under_22.5 13.0% over_24.5 77.7% under_24.5 22.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 91.3% under_9.5 8.7% over_11.5 79.6%
under_11.5 20.4% over_13.5 62.9% under_13.5 37.1%
team_away
over_9.5 86.7% under_9.5 13.3% over_11.5 71.7%
under_11.5 28.3% over_13.5 52.7% under_13.5 47.3%
most
home 54.0% draw 6.7% away 39.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 33.9% away_+3.5 66.1% home_-0.5 54.0%
away_+0.5 46.0% home_+2.5 73.0% away_-2.5 27.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 24.9% no 75.1%
home
yes 14.6% no 85.4%
away
yes 12.1% no 87.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Montpellier predictions · Pau FC predictions · Ligue 2

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Ligue 2MontpellierPau FCTrack record