Shots
| Over 22.5 |
55.2% |
Over 24.5 |
42.3% |
Over 26.5 |
30.5% |
Over 28.5 |
20.7% |
| Most: Rodez |
65.4% |
Most: Grenoble |
28.7% |
| Rodez Over 13.2 |
45.4% |
Grenoble Over 13.2 |
20.5% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
72.1% |
Over 7.5 |
60.1% |
Over 8.5 |
47.8% |
Over 9.5 |
36.2% |
| Most: Rodez |
59.4% |
Most: Grenoble |
28.8% |
| Rodez Over 4.2 |
52.8% |
Grenoble Over 4.2 |
30.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
70.4% |
Over 3.5 |
49.3% |
Over 4.5 |
30.1% |
| Most: Rodez |
33.5% |
Most: Grenoble |
45.0% |
| Rodez Over 1.8 |
50.0% |
Grenoble Over 1.8 |
58.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Rodez clean sheet |
32.9% |
| Grenoble clean sheet |
19.1% |
| Rodez win to nil |
26.0% |
| Grenoble win to nil |
12.2% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
49.6% |
draw |
25.6% |
away |
24.8% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
75.2% |
12 |
74.5% |
X2 |
50.4% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
22.9% |
home_by_2 |
15.3% |
home_by_3plus |
11.4% |
| away_by_1 |
15.1% |
away_by_2 |
6.8% |
away_by_3plus |
2.9% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
6.9% |
0-1 |
6.4% |
0-2 |
3.9% |
| 0-3 |
1.4% |
0-4 |
0.4% |
0-5 |
0.1% |
| 1-0 |
9.9% |
1-1 |
12.2% |
1-2 |
6.4% |
| 1-3 |
2.4% |
1-4 |
0.7% |
1-5 |
0.1% |
| 2-0 |
8.7% |
2-1 |
9.6% |
2-2 |
5.3% |
| 2-3 |
2.0% |
2-4 |
0.5% |
2-5 |
0.1% |
| 3-0 |
4.8% |
3-1 |
5.3% |
3-2 |
2.9% |
| 3-3 |
1.1% |
3-4 |
0.3% |
3-5 |
0.1% |
| 4-0 |
2.0% |
4-1 |
2.2% |
4-2 |
1.2% |
| 4-3 |
0.4% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
0.7% |
5-1 |
0.7% |
5-2 |
0.4% |
| 5-3 |
0.2% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
0.8% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
12.2% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
93.1% |
under_0.5 |
6.9% |
over_1.5 |
76.8% |
| under_1.5 |
23.2% |
over_2.5 |
52.1% |
under_2.5 |
47.9% |
| over_3.5 |
29.9% |
under_3.5 |
70.1% |
over_4.5 |
14.6% |
| under_4.5 |
85.4% |
over_5.5 |
6.2% |
under_5.5 |
93.8% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
80.9% |
under_0.5 |
19.1% |
over_1.5 |
49.3% |
| under_1.5 |
50.7% |
over_2.5 |
23.1% |
under_2.5 |
76.9% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
66.9% |
under_0.5 |
33.1% |
over_1.5 |
30.3% |
| under_1.5 |
69.7% |
over_2.5 |
10.1% |
under_2.5 |
89.9% |
|
most
| home |
49.6% |
draw |
25.6% |
away |
24.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
11.4% |
away_+2.5 |
88.6% |
home_-1.5 |
26.7% |
| away_+1.5 |
73.3% |
home_-0.5 |
49.6% |
away_+0.5 |
50.4% |
| home_+0.5 |
75.2% |
away_-0.5 |
24.8% |
home_+1.5 |
90.3% |
| away_-1.5 |
9.8% |
home_+2.5 |
97.1% |
away_-2.5 |
2.9% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
6.9% |
exact_1 |
16.3% |
exact_2 |
24.7% |
| exact_3 |
22.2% |
exact_4 |
15.3% |
exact_5 |
8.5% |
| exact_6 |
3.9% |
exact_7plus |
2.3% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
26.6% |
draw |
43.2% |
away |
30.2% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
68.1% |
under_0.5 |
32.0% |
over_1.5 |
31.6% |
| under_1.5 |
68.4% |
over_2.5 |
10.8% |
under_2.5 |
89.2% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
32.0% |
exact_1 |
36.4% |
exact_2 |
20.8% |
| exact_3 |
7.9% |
exact_4plus |
2.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
52.0% |
draw |
31.7% |
away |
16.3% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
81.3% |
under_0.5 |
18.7% |
over_1.5 |
49.9% |
| under_1.5 |
50.1% |
over_2.5 |
23.6% |
under_2.5 |
76.4% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
23.1% |
H/D |
2.8% |
H/A |
0.8% |
| D/H |
22.5% |
D/D |
13.7% |
D/A |
7.1% |
| A/H |
5.7% |
A/D |
7.5% |
A/A |
17.0% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
70.3% |
under_7.5 |
29.7% |
over_8.5 |
58.4% |
| under_8.5 |
41.6% |
over_9.5 |
46.2% |
under_9.5 |
53.8% |
| over_10.5 |
34.8% |
under_10.5 |
65.2% |
over_11.5 |
25.0% |
| under_11.5 |
75.0% |
over_12.5 |
17.1% |
under_12.5 |
82.9% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
75.0% |
under_3.5 |
25.0% |
over_4.5 |
60.1% |
| under_4.5 |
39.9% |
over_5.5 |
44.9% |
under_5.5 |
55.1% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
54.1% |
under_3.5 |
45.9% |
over_4.5 |
36.7% |
| under_4.5 |
63.3% |
over_5.5 |
22.8% |
under_5.5 |
77.2% |
|
most
| home |
60.0% |
draw |
10.4% |
away |
29.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
28.0% |
away_+3.5 |
72.0% |
home_-1.5 |
48.9% |
| away_+1.5 |
51.1% |
home_-0.5 |
60.0% |
away_+0.5 |
40.0% |
| home_+0.5 |
70.5% |
away_-0.5 |
29.5% |
home_+1.5 |
79.4% |
| away_-1.5 |
20.6% |
home_+3.5 |
91.7% |
away_-3.5 |
8.3% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
55.2% |
under_22.5 |
44.8% |
over_24.5 |
42.3% |
| under_24.5 |
57.7% |
over_26.5 |
30.5% |
under_26.5 |
69.5% |
| over_28.5 |
20.7% |
under_28.5 |
79.3% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
70.7% |
under_10.5 |
29.3% |
over_12.5 |
53.8% |
| under_12.5 |
46.2% |
over_14.5 |
37.3% |
under_14.5 |
62.7% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
45.0% |
under_10.5 |
55.0% |
over_12.5 |
27.5% |
| under_12.5 |
72.5% |
over_14.5 |
14.9% |
under_14.5 |
85.1% |
|
most
| home |
65.4% |
draw |
5.9% |
away |
28.7% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
39.5% |
away_+4.5 |
60.5% |
home_-2.5 |
52.6% |
| away_+2.5 |
47.4% |
home_-0.5 |
65.4% |
away_+0.5 |
34.6% |
| home_+0.5 |
71.3% |
away_-0.5 |
28.7% |
home_+2.5 |
81.5% |
| away_-2.5 |
18.5% |
home_+4.5 |
89.0% |
away_-4.5 |
11.0% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
72.1% |
under_6.5 |
27.9% |
over_7.5 |
60.1% |
| under_7.5 |
39.9% |
over_8.5 |
47.8% |
under_8.5 |
52.2% |
| over_9.5 |
36.2% |
under_9.5 |
63.8% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
69.1% |
under_3.5 |
30.9% |
over_4.5 |
52.8% |
| under_4.5 |
47.2% |
over_5.5 |
37.4% |
under_5.5 |
62.6% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
47.8% |
under_3.5 |
52.2% |
over_4.5 |
30.5% |
| under_4.5 |
69.5% |
over_5.5 |
17.8% |
under_5.5 |
82.2% |
|
most
| home |
59.4% |
draw |
11.7% |
away |
28.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
34.8% |
away_+2.5 |
65.2% |
home_-0.5 |
59.4% |
| away_+0.5 |
40.6% |
home_+0.5 |
71.2% |
away_-0.5 |
28.8% |
| home_+2.5 |
88.4% |
away_-2.5 |
11.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
70.4% |
under_2.5 |
29.6% |
over_3.5 |
49.3% |
| under_3.5 |
50.7% |
over_4.5 |
30.1% |
under_4.5 |
69.9% |
| over_5.5 |
16.1% |
under_5.5 |
83.9% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
50.0% |
under_1.5 |
50.1% |
over_2.5 |
23.7% |
| under_2.5 |
76.3% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
58.4% |
under_1.5 |
41.6% |
over_2.5 |
31.3% |
| under_2.5 |
68.7% |
most
| home |
33.5% |
draw |
21.6% |
away |
45.0% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
16.5% |
away_+1.5 |
83.5% |
home_-0.5 |
33.5% |
| away_+0.5 |
66.6% |
home_+0.5 |
55.1% |
away_-0.5 |
45.0% |
| home_+1.5 |
74.9% |
away_-1.5 |
25.2% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
83.1% |
under_20.5 |
16.9% |
over_22.5 |
71.7% |
| under_22.5 |
28.3% |
over_24.5 |
58.1% |
under_24.5 |
41.9% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
80.7% |
under_9.5 |
19.3% |
over_11.5 |
62.6% |
| under_11.5 |
37.4% |
over_13.5 |
42.5% |
under_13.5 |
57.5% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
80.1% |
under_9.5 |
19.9% |
over_11.5 |
61.8% |
| under_11.5 |
38.3% |
over_13.5 |
41.6% |
under_13.5 |
58.4% |
|
most
| home |
47.0% |
draw |
7.2% |
away |
45.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
26.8% |
away_+3.5 |
73.2% |
home_-0.5 |
47.0% |
| away_+0.5 |
53.0% |
home_+2.5 |
68.0% |
away_-2.5 |
32.0% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Ligue 2