Sochaux vs Nantes prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

By /

Sochaux vs Nantes: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Ligue 2
Sochaux

LDWDD

Sat, 12 Sep 202613:00UK
Nantes

LLLDW

Model’s top convictions

71%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Sochaux or draw

60%

Draw or Nantes

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.29).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
SochauxWin probability
39.7%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals71.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.40
Sochaux or draw68.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.47
Draw or Nantes60.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.66

Model read

▾

"Sochaux or Nantes? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Sochaux versus Nantes in the Ligue 2 on 12 September 2026 is finely balanced. Sochaux edge it at 40%, but the gap to the field is slim. Notably, the model is warmer on Sochaux than the market (29%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 45% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 51%. Schedule edge: Sochaux have had 3 more days of rest than Nantes. As a promoted side, Sochaux carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Recent form reads W1 D3 L2 for Sochaux against W1 D1 L3 for Nantes. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.29)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals44.8%@ 2.23
Over 9.5 corners42.4%@ 2.36
Over 10.5 corners32.4%@ 3.09
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals55.2%@ 1.81
Over 8.5 corners53.5%@ 1.87
Both teams to score50.7%@ 1.97
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.5%@ 7.41
1-0 correct score10.5%@ 9.52
0-1 correct score9.1%@ 10.95

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Sochaux

39.7%+11.0%

Draw

28.4%-0.3%

Nantes

31.9%-10.7%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.29)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.571.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.544.8%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes50.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.553.5%

Good chance

Over 9.542.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.532.4%

Toss-up

Over 11.523.9%

Low chance

Most cornersSochaux50.7%Nantes37.8%

Shots markets

Over 22.555.3%

Good chance

Over 24.542.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.530.7%

Toss-up

Over 28.520.9%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Sochaux10.0 taken14.3 faced
Nantes15.0 taken11.4 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.2%2.544.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.571.2%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.29).

Form & head-to-head

SochauxLDWDD
NantesLLLDW

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

SochauxNantes
League position#9 of 18#15 of 18
Record W-D-L1-3-11-1-3
Current streakD2W1
Points per game1.200.80
Record, home vs away1-0-10-1-1
Goals scored per game0.401.40
Goals conceded per game0.802.20
1st half goals per game0.200.80
2nd half goals per game0.200.60
Corners won per game2.64.8
Cards per game1.21.4
Fouls per game15.215.0
Red cards this season10
Shots per game9.015.0
Shots faced per game15.411.4
Shots on target per game2.43.8
Over 2.5 rate

20.0%60.0%

BTTS rate

20.0%60.0%

Clean sheets

60.0%20.0%

Rates this season:SochauxNantes

League averages this season: 2.56 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 44% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Sochaux win3.102.52
Draw3.103.52
Nantes win2.153.13
Over 2.5 goals2.002.23
Under 2.5 goals1.801.81

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Sochaux win2.52
Draw3.52
Nantes win3.13
Both teams to score1.97

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.40
Over 2.5 goals2.23
Over 3.5 goals4.24
Sochaux most2.52
Nantes most3.13

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.49
Over 8.5 corners1.82
Over 9.5 corners2.34
Over 10.5 corners3.17
Sochaux most1.97
Nantes most2.64

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.41
Over 3.5 cards2.01
Over 4.5 cards3.28
Over 5.5 cards6.09
Sochaux most2.81
Nantes most2.34

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.42
Over 7.5 SoT1.72
Over 8.5 SoT2.18
Over 9.5 SoT2.92
Sochaux most2.09
Nantes most2.54

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.81
Over 24.5 shots2.36
Over 26.5 shots3.26
Over 28.5 shots4.79
Sochaux most1.77
Nantes most2.70

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.11
Over 22.5 fouls1.22
Over 24.5 fouls1.40
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 55.3% Over 24.5 42.4% Over 26.5 30.7% Over 28.5 20.9%
Most: Sochaux 56.5% Most: Nantes 37.1%
Sochaux Over 13.2 39.3% Nantes Over 13.2 26.3%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 70.5% Over 7.5 58.2% Over 8.5 45.8% Over 9.5 34.3%
Most: Sochaux 48.0% Most: Nantes 39.3%
Sochaux Over 4.2 43.7% Nantes Over 4.2 37.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 70.8% Over 3.5 49.7% Over 4.5 30.5%
Most: Sochaux 35.6% Most: Nantes 42.8%
Sochaux Over 1.8 51.9% Nantes Over 1.8 57.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Sochaux clean sheet 31.5%
Nantes clean sheet 26.8%
Sochaux win to nil 22.4%
Nantes win to nil 17.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 39.7% draw 28.4% away 31.9%
double_chance
1X 68.1% 12 71.6% X2 60.3%
dnb
home 55.4% away 44.6%
btts
yes 50.7% no 49.3%
clean_sheet
home 31.6% away 26.9%
win_to_nil
home 22.5% away 17.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.4% home_by_2 11.8% home_by_3plus 6.5%
away_by_1 18.7% away_by_2 9.1% away_by_3plus 4.2%
correct_score
0-0 9.1% 0-1 9.1% 0-2 5.6%
0-3 2.2% 0-4 0.6% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.5% 1-1 13.5% 1-2 7.4%
1-3 2.9% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.3% 2-1 8.5% 2-2 4.9%
2-3 1.9% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.2% 3-1 3.7% 3-2 2.1%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.1% 4-1 1.2% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.9% under_0.5 9.1% over_1.5 71.3%
under_1.5 28.7% over_2.5 44.8% under_2.5 55.2%
over_3.5 23.6% under_3.5 76.4% over_4.5 10.5%
under_4.5 89.5% over_5.5 4.0% under_5.5 96.0%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 73.1% under_0.5 26.9% over_1.5 37.8%
under_1.5 62.2% over_2.5 14.6% under_2.5 85.4%
team_away
over_0.5 68.4% under_0.5 31.6% over_1.5 32.0%
under_1.5 68.0% over_2.5 11.1% under_2.5 88.9%
most
home 39.7% draw 28.4% away 31.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.5% away_+2.5 93.5% home_-1.5 18.3%
away_+1.5 81.7% home_-0.5 39.7% away_+0.5 60.3%
home_+0.5 68.1% away_-0.5 31.9% home_+1.5 86.7%
away_-1.5 13.3% home_+2.5 95.8% away_-2.5 4.2%
total_exact
exact_0 9.1% exact_1 19.6% exact_2 26.5%
exact_3 21.2% exact_4 13.1% exact_5 6.5%
exact_6 2.7% exact_7plus 1.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 23.9% draw 40.9% away 35.3%
total
over_0.5 71.1% under_0.5 28.9% over_1.5 35.2%
under_1.5 64.8% over_2.5 13.0% under_2.5 87.0%
btts
yes 20.9% no 79.1%
total_exact
exact_0 28.9% exact_1 35.9% exact_2 22.3%
exact_3 9.2% exact_4plus 3.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.7% draw 42.8% away 16.5%
total
over_0.5 66.7% under_0.5 33.3% over_1.5 30.1%
under_1.5 69.9% over_2.5 10.0% under_2.5 90.0%
btts
yes 15.9% no 84.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 20.7% H/D 2.7% H/A 0.5%
D/H 16.6% D/D 17.5% D/A 6.8%
A/H 3.4% A/D 7.8% A/A 24.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 67.3% under_7.5 32.7% over_8.5 55.0%
under_8.5 45.0% over_9.5 42.7% under_9.5 57.3%
over_10.5 31.5% under_10.5 68.5% over_11.5 22.2%
under_11.5 77.9% over_12.5 14.8% under_12.5 85.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.9% under_3.5 32.1% over_4.5 51.5%
under_4.5 48.5% over_5.5 36.2% under_5.5 63.8%
team_away
over_3.5 59.0% under_3.5 41.0% over_4.5 41.7%
under_4.5 58.3% over_5.5 27.1% under_5.5 72.9%
most
home 50.8% draw 11.3% away 37.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.3% away_+3.5 79.7% home_-1.5 39.5%
away_+1.5 60.5% home_-0.5 50.8% away_+0.5 49.2%
home_+0.5 62.1% away_-0.5 37.9% home_+1.5 72.5%
away_-1.5 27.6% home_+3.5 87.8% away_-3.5 12.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 55.3% under_22.5 44.7% over_24.5 42.4%
under_24.5 57.6% over_26.5 30.7% under_26.5 69.3%
over_28.5 20.9% under_28.5 79.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 65.4% under_10.5 34.6% over_12.5 47.7%
under_12.5 52.3% over_14.5 31.5% under_14.5 68.5%
team_away
over_10.5 52.1% under_10.5 47.9% over_12.5 34.0%
under_12.5 66.1% over_14.5 19.8% under_14.5 80.2%
most
home 56.5% draw 6.4% away 37.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 31.0% away_+4.5 69.0% home_-2.5 43.4%
away_+2.5 56.6% home_-0.5 56.5% away_+0.5 43.5%
home_+0.5 62.9% away_-0.5 37.1% home_+2.5 74.6%
away_-2.5 25.4% home_+4.5 83.9% away_-4.5 16.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 70.5% under_6.5 29.5% over_7.5 58.2%
under_7.5 41.8% over_8.5 45.8% under_8.5 54.2%
over_9.5 34.3% under_9.5 65.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 61.0% under_3.5 39.0% over_4.5 43.7%
under_4.5 56.3% over_5.5 28.8% under_5.5 71.2%
team_away
over_3.5 55.1% under_3.5 45.0% over_4.5 37.5%
under_4.5 62.5% over_5.5 23.4% under_5.5 76.6%
most
home 48.0% draw 12.7% away 39.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 24.6% away_+2.5 75.4% home_-0.5 48.0%
away_+0.5 52.0% home_+0.5 60.7% away_-0.5 39.3%
home_+2.5 81.8% away_-2.5 18.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 70.8% under_2.5 29.2% over_3.5 49.8%
under_3.5 50.2% over_4.5 30.5% under_4.5 69.5%
over_5.5 16.4% under_5.5 83.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.9% under_1.5 48.1% over_2.5 25.4%
under_2.5 74.7%
team_away
over_1.5 57.2% under_1.5 42.8% over_2.5 30.2%
under_2.5 69.8%
most
home 35.6% draw 21.7% away 42.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.1% away_+1.5 81.9% home_-0.5 35.6%
away_+0.5 64.4% home_+0.5 57.2% away_-0.5 42.8%
home_+1.5 76.5% away_-1.5 23.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 90.4% under_20.5 9.6% over_22.5 82.2%
under_22.5 17.8% over_24.5 71.2% under_24.5 28.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 86.1% under_9.5 13.9% over_11.5 70.8%
under_11.5 29.2% over_13.5 51.7% under_13.5 48.3%
team_away
over_9.5 86.6% under_9.5 13.4% over_11.5 71.6%
under_11.5 28.4% over_13.5 52.7% under_13.5 47.3%
most
home 45.8% draw 6.9% away 47.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.5% away_+3.5 73.5% home_-0.5 45.8%
away_+0.5 54.2% home_+2.5 66.2% away_-2.5 33.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 19.1% no 80.9%
home
yes 15.8% no 84.2%
away
yes 3.9% no 96.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Sochaux predictions · Nantes predictions · Ligue 2

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

Ligue 2SochauxNantesTrack record