Shots
| Over 22.5 |
54.1% |
Over 24.5 |
41.2% |
Over 26.5 |
29.6% |
Over 28.5 |
20.0% |
| Most: Nancy |
57.0% |
Most: Reims |
36.6% |
| Nancy Over 13.2 |
38.8% |
Reims Over 13.2 |
25.2% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
66.8% |
Over 7.5 |
54.0% |
Over 8.5 |
41.5% |
Over 9.5 |
30.3% |
| Most: Nancy |
41.7% |
Most: Reims |
45.2% |
| Nancy Over 4.2 |
36.3% |
Reims Over 4.2 |
38.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
75.4% |
Over 3.5 |
55.6% |
Over 4.5 |
36.1% |
| Most: Nancy |
32.9% |
Most: Reims |
46.5% |
| Nancy Over 1.8 |
53.6% |
Reims Over 1.8 |
63.3% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Nancy clean sheet |
22.5% |
| Reims clean sheet |
36.3% |
| Nancy win to nil |
13.7% |
| Reims win to nil |
27.5% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
25.0% |
draw |
27.3% |
away |
47.8% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
52.2% |
12 |
72.7% |
X2 |
75.0% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
15.7% |
home_by_2 |
6.7% |
home_by_3plus |
2.6% |
| away_by_1 |
23.4% |
away_by_2 |
14.7% |
away_by_3plus |
9.7% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
8.8% |
0-1 |
11.6% |
0-2 |
9.1% |
| 0-3 |
4.5% |
0-4 |
1.7% |
0-5 |
0.5% |
| 1-0 |
7.7% |
1-1 |
13.0% |
1-2 |
9.2% |
| 1-3 |
4.6% |
1-4 |
1.7% |
1-5 |
0.5% |
| 2-0 |
4.2% |
2-1 |
6.2% |
2-2 |
4.6% |
| 2-3 |
2.3% |
2-4 |
0.9% |
2-5 |
0.3% |
| 3-0 |
1.4% |
3-1 |
2.1% |
3-2 |
1.6% |
| 3-3 |
0.8% |
3-4 |
0.3% |
3-5 |
0.1% |
| 4-0 |
0.4% |
4-1 |
0.5% |
4-2 |
0.4% |
| 4-3 |
0.2% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
0.1% |
5-1 |
0.1% |
5-2 |
0.1% |
| 5-3 |
0.0% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
13.0% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
91.2% |
under_0.5 |
8.8% |
over_1.5 |
71.9% |
| under_1.5 |
28.1% |
over_2.5 |
45.7% |
under_2.5 |
54.3% |
| over_3.5 |
24.3% |
under_3.5 |
75.7% |
over_4.5 |
10.9% |
| under_4.5 |
89.1% |
over_5.5 |
4.2% |
under_5.5 |
95.8% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
63.6% |
under_0.5 |
36.4% |
over_1.5 |
26.8% |
| under_1.5 |
73.2% |
over_2.5 |
8.2% |
under_2.5 |
91.8% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
77.5% |
under_0.5 |
22.5% |
over_1.5 |
44.0% |
| under_1.5 |
56.0% |
over_2.5 |
19.0% |
under_2.5 |
81.0% |
|
most
| home |
25.0% |
draw |
27.3% |
away |
47.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
2.6% |
away_+2.5 |
97.4% |
home_-1.5 |
9.3% |
| away_+1.5 |
90.7% |
home_-0.5 |
25.0% |
away_+0.5 |
75.0% |
| home_+0.5 |
52.2% |
away_-0.5 |
47.8% |
home_+1.5 |
75.7% |
| away_-1.5 |
24.3% |
home_+2.5 |
90.3% |
away_-2.5 |
9.7% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
8.8% |
exact_1 |
19.3% |
exact_2 |
26.2% |
| exact_3 |
21.4% |
exact_4 |
13.4% |
exact_5 |
6.7% |
| exact_6 |
2.8% |
exact_7plus |
1.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
27.4% |
draw |
45.3% |
away |
27.3% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
65.1% |
under_0.5 |
34.9% |
over_1.5 |
28.4% |
| under_1.5 |
71.6% |
over_2.5 |
9.0% |
under_2.5 |
91.0% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
34.9% |
exact_1 |
36.7% |
exact_2 |
19.3% |
| exact_3 |
6.8% |
exact_4plus |
2.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
16.5% |
draw |
34.0% |
away |
49.5% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
78.3% |
under_0.5 |
21.7% |
over_1.5 |
45.1% |
| under_1.5 |
54.9% |
over_2.5 |
19.8% |
under_2.5 |
80.2% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
15.9% |
H/D |
6.9% |
H/A |
4.7% |
| D/H |
7.5% |
D/D |
15.4% |
D/A |
22.4% |
| A/H |
0.7% |
A/D |
2.9% |
A/A |
23.7% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
66.7% |
under_7.5 |
33.3% |
over_8.5 |
54.3% |
| under_8.5 |
45.7% |
over_9.5 |
42.1% |
under_9.5 |
57.9% |
| over_10.5 |
30.9% |
under_10.5 |
69.1% |
over_11.5 |
21.6% |
| under_11.5 |
78.4% |
over_12.5 |
14.4% |
under_12.5 |
85.6% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
67.8% |
under_3.5 |
32.2% |
over_4.5 |
51.4% |
| under_4.5 |
48.6% |
over_5.5 |
36.1% |
under_5.5 |
63.9% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
58.2% |
under_3.5 |
41.8% |
over_4.5 |
40.8% |
| under_4.5 |
59.2% |
over_5.5 |
26.4% |
under_5.5 |
73.6% |
|
most
| home |
51.3% |
draw |
11.3% |
away |
37.4% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
20.5% |
away_+3.5 |
79.5% |
home_-1.5 |
39.9% |
| away_+1.5 |
60.1% |
home_-0.5 |
51.3% |
away_+0.5 |
48.7% |
| home_+0.5 |
62.6% |
away_-0.5 |
37.4% |
home_+1.5 |
72.9% |
| away_-1.5 |
27.1% |
home_+3.5 |
88.1% |
away_-3.5 |
11.9% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
54.1% |
under_22.5 |
45.9% |
over_24.5 |
41.2% |
| under_24.5 |
58.8% |
over_26.5 |
29.6% |
under_26.5 |
70.4% |
| over_28.5 |
20.0% |
under_28.5 |
80.0% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
65.0% |
under_10.5 |
35.1% |
over_12.5 |
47.2% |
| under_12.5 |
52.8% |
over_14.5 |
31.1% |
under_14.5 |
68.9% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
50.8% |
under_10.5 |
49.2% |
over_12.5 |
32.8% |
| under_12.5 |
67.3% |
over_14.5 |
18.9% |
under_14.5 |
81.1% |
|
most
| home |
57.0% |
draw |
6.4% |
away |
36.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
31.3% |
away_+4.5 |
68.7% |
home_-2.5 |
43.8% |
| away_+2.5 |
56.2% |
home_-0.5 |
57.0% |
away_+0.5 |
43.0% |
| home_+0.5 |
63.4% |
away_-0.5 |
36.6% |
home_+2.5 |
75.1% |
| away_-2.5 |
25.0% |
home_+4.5 |
84.3% |
away_-4.5 |
15.7% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
66.8% |
under_6.5 |
33.2% |
over_7.5 |
54.0% |
| under_7.5 |
46.0% |
over_8.5 |
41.5% |
under_8.5 |
58.5% |
| over_9.5 |
30.3% |
under_9.5 |
69.8% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
53.9% |
under_3.5 |
46.1% |
over_4.5 |
36.3% |
| under_4.5 |
63.7% |
over_5.5 |
22.4% |
under_5.5 |
77.6% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
56.4% |
under_3.5 |
43.6% |
over_4.5 |
38.8% |
| under_4.5 |
61.2% |
over_5.5 |
24.5% |
under_5.5 |
75.5% |
|
most
| home |
41.7% |
draw |
13.1% |
away |
45.2% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
19.4% |
away_+2.5 |
80.6% |
home_-0.5 |
41.7% |
| away_+0.5 |
58.3% |
home_+0.5 |
54.8% |
away_-0.5 |
45.2% |
| home_+2.5 |
78.0% |
away_-2.5 |
22.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
75.4% |
under_2.5 |
24.6% |
over_3.5 |
55.6% |
| under_3.5 |
44.4% |
over_4.5 |
36.1% |
under_4.5 |
63.9% |
| over_5.5 |
20.7% |
under_5.5 |
79.3% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
53.6% |
under_1.5 |
46.4% |
over_2.5 |
26.9% |
| under_2.5 |
73.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
63.3% |
under_1.5 |
36.7% |
over_2.5 |
36.4% |
| under_2.5 |
63.6% |
most
| home |
32.9% |
draw |
20.6% |
away |
46.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
16.7% |
away_+1.5 |
83.3% |
home_-0.5 |
32.9% |
| away_+0.5 |
67.1% |
home_+0.5 |
53.5% |
away_-0.5 |
46.5% |
| home_+1.5 |
72.8% |
away_-1.5 |
27.2% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
89.7% |
under_20.5 |
10.3% |
over_22.5 |
81.2% |
| under_22.5 |
18.8% |
over_24.5 |
69.8% |
under_24.5 |
30.2% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
82.0% |
under_9.5 |
18.0% |
over_11.5 |
64.5% |
| under_11.5 |
35.5% |
over_13.5 |
44.5% |
under_13.5 |
55.5% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
88.9% |
under_9.5 |
11.1% |
over_11.5 |
75.4% |
| under_11.5 |
24.6% |
over_13.5 |
57.3% |
under_13.5 |
42.7% |
|
most
| home |
37.7% |
draw |
6.8% |
away |
55.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
20.1% |
away_+3.5 |
79.9% |
home_-0.5 |
37.7% |
| away_+0.5 |
62.3% |
home_+2.5 |
58.4% |
away_-2.5 |
41.6% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Ligue 2
Reims