ChampionshipMiddlesbrough vs 
Wolves Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 46.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 68.1% for over 2.5 to 14.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.5%. Head to head on cards, Wolves are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.4%, with a level count at 21.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 27.6% | 72.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.4% | 85.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
46.7%
21.0%
57.6%
30.6%
Card handicap
| Middlesbrough line | Middlesbrough | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.1% | 84.9% |
| -0.5 | 31.7% | 68.3% |
| +0.5 | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| +1.5 | 74.0% | 26.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 31.7% | 68.3% |
Recent referees
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. We never claim who officiates this match: the appointment is not known before kickoff.
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | R Madley | 2 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Middlesbrough cards per game10.0Middlesbrough fouls per game1.0Wolves cards per game12.4Wolves fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Middlesbrough vs Wolves. It tips Wolves for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
46.5%Over 3.5 cards4.0%Any red card46.7%Middlesbrough over 1.5 cards57.6%Wolves over 1.5 cards46.4%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Middlesbrough over 1.5 cards sits at 46.7% and Wolves at 57.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 4.0% (Middlesbrough 0.9%, Wolves 3.1%). Middlesbrough’s most frequent referee this season, R Madley, has averaged 2.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Middlesbrough have averaged 1.0 cards a game and Wolves 1.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Middlesbrough vs Wolves?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 46.5% for Middlesbrough vs Wolves.
Will there be a red card in Middlesbrough vs Wolves?
The model rates a red card for either side at 4.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Middlesbrough vs Wolves?
The model rates Wolves to pick up more cards at 46.4%, with a level count at 21.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,197 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
