ChampionshipMiddlesbrough vs 
Wolves Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 55.8%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 67.9% for over 22.5 to 31.9% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.8%. Between the two sides, Middlesbrough are the model’s pick to have more shots at 65.9%, with a level count at 5.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 67.9% | 32.1% |
| 24.5 shots | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| 26.5 shots | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 31.9% | 68.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
78.3%
63.4%
47.2%
54.3%
36.1%
21.6%
Shot handicap
| Middlesbrough line | Middlesbrough | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| -2.5 | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| -0.5 | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| +0.5 | 71.5% | 28.5% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 57.8% | 42.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 33.4% | 66.6% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
17.5Middlesbrough shots per game11.8Middlesbrough shots faced per game16.0Wolves shots per game10.4Wolves shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Middlesbrough.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
55.8%Over 24.5 shots63.4%Middlesbrough over 12.5 shots36.1%Wolves over 12.5 shots57.8%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Middlesbrough over 12.5 shots sits at 63.4% and Wolves at 36.1%. This season Middlesbrough have averaged 17.5 shots a game and Wolves 16.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Middlesbrough vs Wolves?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 55.8% for Middlesbrough vs Wolves.
Which team will have more shots in Middlesbrough vs Wolves?
The model rates Middlesbrough to take more shots at 65.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,949 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
