Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Millwall46.5%
Win probability · fair 2.15
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsLikely73.9%Fair 1.35
Draw or MillwallLikely73.4%Fair 1.36
Over 8.5 cornersLikely69.9%Fair 1.43
Model read
▾
Our engine prices Millwall at 46% for 10 October 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Preston North End are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Millwall win46.5%@ 2.15
Over 11.5 corners39.7%@ 2.52
Medium risk
Over 9.5 corners59.9%@ 1.67
Preston North End or draw53.5%@ 1.87
Both teams to score52.3%@ 1.91
Random finds
1-1 correct score12.8%@ 7.80
0-1 correct score10.6%@ 9.41
1-2 correct score9.2%@ 10.82
Model vs market
Preston
26.6%
Draw
26.9%
Millwall
46.5%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely73.9%Fair 1.35
Over 2.5Close call48.1%Fair 2.08
BTTS · YesClose call52.3%Fair 1.91
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely69.9%Fair 1.43
Over 9.5 cornersClose call59.9%Fair 1.67
Over 10.5 cornersClose call49.5%Fair 2.02
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely39.7%Fair 2.52
Most cornersPreston North End57.9%Millwall32.0%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely67.4%Fair 1.48
Over 24.5 shotsClose call55.3%Fair 1.81
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely43.0%Fair 2.33
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely31.6%Fair 3.17
Recent shot volume
Millwall12.8 taken15.2 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.573.9%2.548.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.9%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Preston North End win3.76
Draw3.72
Millwall win2.15
Both teams to score1.91
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.35
Over 2.5 goals2.08
Over 3.5 goals3.79
Preston North End most3.76
Millwall most2.15
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.21
Over 8.5 corners1.37
Over 9.5 corners1.61
Over 10.5 corners1.97
Preston North End most1.72
Millwall most3.12
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.45
Over 3.5 cards2.11
Over 4.5 cards3.51
Over 5.5 cards6.69
Preston North End most3.14
Millwall most2.15
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.51
Over 7.5 SoT1.87
Over 8.5 SoT2.46
Over 9.5 SoT3.42
Preston North End most1.96
Millwall most2.79
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.48
Over 24.5 shots1.81
Over 26.5 shots2.33
Over 28.5 shots3.17
Preston North End most1.64
Millwall most3.03
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.72
Over 22.5 fouls2.37
Over 24.5 fouls3.56
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
67.4%
Over 24.5
55.3%
Over 26.5
43.0%
Over 28.5
31.6%
Most: Preston North End
61.1%
Most: Millwall
33.0%
Preston North End Over 13.2
51.5%
Millwall Over 13.2
31.4%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
66.4%
Over 7.5
53.4%
Over 8.5
40.6%
Over 9.5
29.3%
Most: Preston North End
51.0%
Most: Millwall
35.8%
Preston North End Over 4.2
42.3%
Millwall Over 4.2
31.6%
Cards
Over 2.5
68.9%
Over 3.5
47.5%
Over 4.5
28.5%
Most: Preston North End
31.8%
Most: Millwall
46.4%
Preston North End Over 1.8
47.4%
Millwall Over 1.8
58.2%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Preston North End clean sheet
22.0%
Millwall clean sheet
33.6%
Preston North End win to nil
14.0%
Millwall win to nil
25.5%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
26.6%
draw
26.9%
away
46.5%
double_chance
1X
53.5%
12
73.1%
X2
73.4%
dnb
home
36.4%
away
63.6%
btts
yes
52.3%
no
47.7%
clean_sheet
home
22.0%
away
33.7%
win_to_nil
home
14.0%
away
25.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1
16.2%
home_by_2
7.3%
home_by_3plus
3.1%
away_by_1
22.8%
away_by_2
14.2%
away_by_3plus
9.5%
correct_score
0-0
8.0%
0-1
10.6%
0-2
8.5%
0-3
4.3%
0-4
1.6%
0-5
0.5%
1-0
7.5%
1-1
12.8%
1-2
9.2%
1-3
4.7%
1-4
1.8%
1-5
0.5%
2-0
4.4%
2-1
6.6%
2-2
5.0%
2-3
2.5%
2-4
1.0%
2-5
0.3%
3-0
1.6%
3-1
2.4%
3-2
1.8%
3-3
0.9%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
4-1
0.7%
4-2
0.5%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.6%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
12.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
92.0%
under_0.5
8.0%
over_1.5
73.9%
under_1.5
26.1%
over_2.5
48.2%
under_2.5
51.8%
over_3.5
26.4%
under_3.5
73.6%
over_4.5
12.3%
under_4.5
87.7%
over_5.5
4.9%
under_5.5
95.1%
odd_even
odd
48.5%
even
51.5%
team_home
over_0.5
66.3%
under_0.5
33.7%
over_1.5
29.6%
under_1.5
70.4%
over_2.5
9.7%
under_2.5
90.3%
team_away
over_0.5
78.0%
under_0.5
22.0%
over_1.5
44.7%
under_1.5
55.3%
over_2.5
19.5%
under_2.5
80.6%
most
home
26.6%
draw
26.9%
away
46.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
3.1%
away_+2.5
96.9%
home_-1.5
10.4%
away_+1.5
89.6%
home_-0.5
26.6%
away_+0.5
73.4%
home_+0.5
53.5%
away_-0.5
46.5%
home_+1.5
76.3%
away_-1.5
23.7%
home_+2.5
90.6%
away_-2.5
9.5%
total_exact
exact_0
8.0%
exact_1
18.1%
exact_2
25.7%
exact_3
21.8%
exact_4
14.1%
exact_5
7.4%
exact_6
3.2%
exact_7plus
1.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
26.6%
draw
45.3%
away
28.2%
total
over_0.5
65.1%
under_0.5
34.9%
over_1.5
28.4%
under_1.5
71.6%
over_2.5
9.0%
under_2.5
91.0%
btts
yes
16.7%
no
83.3%
total_exact
exact_0
34.9%
exact_1
36.7%
exact_2
19.3%
exact_3
6.8%
exact_4plus
2.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
35.1%
draw
35.3%
away
29.6%
total
over_0.5
79.7%
under_0.5
20.3%
over_1.5
47.4%
under_1.5
52.6%
over_2.5
21.6%
under_2.5
78.4%
btts
yes
30.1%
no
69.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
20.0%
H/D
4.6%
H/A
2.0%
D/H
15.9%
D/D
16.0%
D/A
13.4%
A/H
2.7%
A/D
5.5%
A/A
20.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
82.5%
under_7.5
17.5%
over_8.5
73.1%
under_8.5
26.9%
over_9.5
62.2%
under_9.5
37.8%
over_10.5
50.7%
under_10.5
49.3%
over_11.5
39.5%
under_11.5
60.5%
over_12.5
29.5%
under_12.5
70.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
81.5%
under_3.5
18.5%
over_4.5
68.6%
under_4.5
31.5%
over_5.5
54.1%
under_5.5
45.9%
team_away
over_3.5
66.5%
under_3.5
33.6%
over_4.5
49.6%
under_4.5
50.4%
over_5.5
34.2%
under_5.5
65.8%
most
home
58.1%
draw
9.9%
away
32.1%
handicap
home_-3.5
28.2%
away_+3.5
71.8%
home_-1.5
47.7%
away_+1.5
52.3%
home_-0.5
58.1%
away_+0.5
41.9%
home_+0.5
67.9%
away_-0.5
32.1%
home_+1.5
76.7%
away_-1.5
23.3%
home_+3.5
89.4%
away_-3.5
10.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
67.4%
under_22.5
32.6%
over_24.5
55.3%
under_24.5
44.7%
over_26.5
43.0%
under_26.5
57.0%
over_28.5
31.6%
under_28.5
68.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
75.6%
under_10.5
24.4%
over_12.5
59.8%
under_12.5
40.2%
over_14.5
43.4%
under_14.5
56.6%
team_away
over_10.5
57.7%
under_10.5
42.3%
over_12.5
39.5%
under_12.5
60.5%
over_14.5
24.4%
under_14.5
75.6%
most
home
61.2%
draw
5.9%
away
33.0%
handicap
home_-4.5
36.5%
away_+4.5
63.5%
home_-2.5
48.7%
away_+2.5
51.3%
home_-0.5
61.2%
away_+0.5
38.9%
home_+0.5
67.0%
away_-0.5
33.0%
home_+2.5
77.5%
away_-2.5
22.5%
home_+4.5
85.8%
away_-4.5
14.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
66.4%
under_6.5
33.6%
over_7.5
53.4%
under_7.5
46.6%
over_8.5
40.6%
under_8.5
59.4%
over_9.5
29.3%
under_9.5
70.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
60.0%
under_3.5
40.0%
over_4.5
42.3%
under_4.5
57.7%
over_5.5
27.3%
under_5.5
72.7%
team_away
over_3.5
49.3%
under_3.5
50.7%
over_4.5
31.6%
under_4.5
68.4%
over_5.5
18.4%
under_5.5
81.6%
most
home
51.0%
draw
13.1%
away
35.9%
handicap
home_-2.5
26.1%
away_+2.5
73.9%
home_-0.5
51.0%
away_+0.5
49.0%
home_+0.5
64.1%
away_-0.5
35.9%
home_+2.5
84.9%
away_-2.5
15.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
68.9%
under_2.5
31.1%
over_3.5
47.5%
under_3.5
52.5%
over_4.5
28.5%
under_4.5
71.5%
over_5.5
15.0%
under_5.5
85.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
47.4%
under_1.5
52.6%
over_2.5
21.6%
under_2.5
78.4%
team_away
over_1.5
58.2%
under_1.5
41.8%
over_2.5
31.2%
under_2.5
68.8%
most
home
31.8%
draw
21.8%
away
46.5%
handicap
home_-1.5
15.2%
away_+1.5
84.8%
home_-0.5
31.8%
away_+0.5
68.2%
home_+0.5
53.6%
away_-0.5
46.5%
home_+1.5
73.9%
away_-1.5
26.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
58.0%
under_20.5
42.0%
over_22.5
42.3%
under_22.5
57.8%
over_24.5
28.1%
under_24.5
71.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
46.9%
under_9.5
53.1%
over_11.5
25.5%
under_11.5
74.5%
over_13.5
11.4%
under_13.5
88.6%
team_away
over_9.5
75.8%
under_9.5
24.2%
over_11.5
55.7%
under_11.5
44.3%
over_13.5
35.4%
under_13.5
64.6%
most
home
25.5%
draw
6.9%
away
67.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
10.3%
away_+3.5
89.7%
home_-0.5
25.5%
away_+0.5
74.5%
home_+2.5
47.9%
away_-2.5
52.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
15.1%
no
84.9%
home
yes
7.8%
no
92.2%
away
yes
8.0%
no
92.0%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Championship