Premier League
Manchester City vs 
Sunderland Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 55.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.1% for over 2.5 to 20.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.2%. Head to head on cards, Sunderland are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 53.8%, with a level count at 19.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 35.7% | 64.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 20.3% | 79.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
47.7%
21.8%
67.4%
40.9%
Card handicap
| Manchester City line | Manchester City | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.3% | 87.7% |
| -0.5 | 26.4% | 73.6% |
| +0.5 | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| +1.5 | 66.6% | 33.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 29.2% | 70.8% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Manchester City vs Sunderland. The model leans toward Sunderland for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
55.2%Over 3.5 cards10.1%Any red card47.7%Manchester City over 1.5 cards67.4%Sunderland over 1.5 cards44.1%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Manchester City over 1.5 cards sits at 47.7% and Sunderland at 67.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.1% (Manchester City 2.5%, Sunderland 7.8%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Manchester City vs Sunderland?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 55.2% for Manchester City vs Sunderland.
Will there be a red card in Manchester City vs Sunderland?
The model rates a red card for either side at 10.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Manchester City vs Sunderland?
The model rates Sunderland to pick up more cards at 53.8%, with a level count at 19.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,114 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
