Shots
| Over 22.5 |
61.7% |
Over 24.5 |
50.0% |
Over 26.5 |
38.6% |
Over 28.5 |
28.2% |
| Most: Manchester City |
67.4% |
Most: Sunderland |
27.4% |
| Manchester City Over 13.2 |
52.9% |
Sunderland Over 13.2 |
24.3% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
72.0% |
Over 7.5 |
60.4% |
Over 8.5 |
48.4% |
Over 9.5 |
37.1% |
| Most: Manchester City |
60.4% |
Most: Sunderland |
28.2% |
| Manchester City Over 4.2 |
53.8% |
Sunderland Over 4.2 |
30.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
75.1% |
Over 3.5 |
55.2% |
Over 4.5 |
35.6% |
| Most: Manchester City |
26.4% |
Most: Sunderland |
53.8% |
| Manchester City Over 1.8 |
47.7% |
Sunderland Over 1.8 |
67.4% |
Manchester City: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Erling Haaland |
3.61 |
1.73 |
0.69 |
81.1% |
86.2% |
48.6% |
| Antoine Semenyo |
2.71 |
1.1 |
0.36 |
65.5% |
73.6% |
29.4% |
| Mathis Cherki |
2.37 |
0.77 |
0.31 |
40.5% |
47.4% |
18.9% |
| Enzo Fernández |
1.89 |
0.76 |
0.24 |
50.5% |
52.2% |
19.9% |
| Iliman Ndiaye |
1.36 |
0.67 |
0.25 |
45.9% |
35.5% |
20.5% |
Sunderland: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Wilson Isidor |
3.53 |
1.32 |
0.51 |
39.3% |
38.5% |
17.5% |
| Malick Fofana |
2.05 |
0.95 |
0.32 |
44.5% |
36.2% |
18.0% |
| Brian Brobbey |
1.67 |
0.68 |
0.28 |
38.6% |
33.6% |
18.2% |
| Nilson Angulo |
1.18 |
0.53 |
0.13 |
28.5% |
17.3% |
7.9% |
| Chemsdine Talbi |
1.42 |
0.51 |
0.23 |
26.6% |
21.4% |
13.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Manchester City clean sheet |
43.9% |
| Sunderland clean sheet |
14.8% |
| Manchester City win to nil |
36.7% |
| Sunderland win to nil |
7.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
62.7% |
draw |
22.5% |
away |
14.8% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
85.2% |
12 |
77.5% |
X2 |
37.3% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
24.6% |
home_by_2 |
19.5% |
home_by_3plus |
18.6% |
| away_by_1 |
10.2% |
away_by_2 |
3.6% |
away_by_3plus |
1.1% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
7.1% |
0-1 |
4.8% |
0-2 |
2.2% |
| 0-3 |
0.6% |
0-4 |
0.1% |
0-5 |
0.0% |
| 1-0 |
12.1% |
1-1 |
10.7% |
1-2 |
4.1% |
| 1-3 |
1.1% |
1-4 |
0.2% |
1-5 |
0.0% |
| 2-0 |
12.0% |
2-1 |
9.7% |
2-2 |
4.0% |
| 2-3 |
1.1% |
2-4 |
0.2% |
2-5 |
0.0% |
| 3-0 |
7.6% |
3-1 |
6.2% |
3-2 |
2.5% |
| 3-3 |
0.7% |
3-4 |
0.1% |
3-5 |
0.0% |
| 4-0 |
3.7% |
4-1 |
2.9% |
4-2 |
1.2% |
| 4-3 |
0.3% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
1.4% |
5-1 |
1.1% |
5-2 |
0.5% |
| 5-3 |
0.1% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
1.4% |
likeliest_score
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
92.9% |
under_0.5 |
7.1% |
over_1.5 |
76.0% |
| under_1.5 |
24.0% |
over_2.5 |
51.2% |
under_2.5 |
48.8% |
| over_3.5 |
29.1% |
under_3.5 |
70.9% |
over_4.5 |
14.1% |
| under_4.5 |
85.9% |
over_5.5 |
5.9% |
under_5.5 |
94.1% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
85.2% |
under_0.5 |
14.8% |
over_1.5 |
56.9% |
| under_1.5 |
43.1% |
over_2.5 |
29.9% |
under_2.5 |
70.1% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
55.6% |
under_0.5 |
44.5% |
over_1.5 |
19.6% |
| under_1.5 |
80.4% |
over_2.5 |
5.0% |
under_2.5 |
95.0% |
|
most
| home |
62.7% |
draw |
22.5% |
away |
14.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
18.6% |
away_+2.5 |
81.5% |
home_-1.5 |
38.1% |
| away_+1.5 |
62.0% |
home_-0.5 |
62.7% |
away_+0.5 |
37.3% |
| home_+0.5 |
85.2% |
away_-0.5 |
14.8% |
home_+1.5 |
95.4% |
| away_-1.5 |
4.6% |
home_+2.5 |
98.9% |
away_-2.5 |
1.1% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
7.1% |
exact_1 |
16.9% |
exact_2 |
24.8% |
| exact_3 |
22.1% |
exact_4 |
15.0% |
exact_5 |
8.2% |
| exact_6 |
3.7% |
exact_7plus |
2.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
54.9% |
draw |
37.5% |
away |
7.6% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
68.8% |
under_0.5 |
31.2% |
over_1.5 |
32.5% |
| under_1.5 |
67.6% |
over_2.5 |
11.3% |
under_2.5 |
88.7% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
31.2% |
exact_1 |
36.3% |
exact_2 |
21.2% |
| exact_3 |
8.2% |
exact_4plus |
3.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
44.9% |
draw |
34.9% |
away |
20.3% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
78.6% |
under_0.5 |
21.4% |
over_1.5 |
45.6% |
| under_1.5 |
54.4% |
over_2.5 |
20.2% |
under_2.5 |
79.8% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
47.4% |
H/D |
5.8% |
H/A |
1.7% |
| D/H |
16.8% |
D/D |
13.1% |
D/A |
7.6% |
| A/H |
1.2% |
A/D |
2.0% |
A/A |
4.4% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
73.9% |
under_7.5 |
26.1% |
over_8.5 |
62.8% |
| under_8.5 |
37.2% |
over_9.5 |
51.0% |
under_9.5 |
49.0% |
| over_10.5 |
39.7% |
under_10.5 |
60.3% |
over_11.5 |
29.5% |
| under_11.5 |
70.5% |
over_12.5 |
21.0% |
under_12.5 |
79.0% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
76.0% |
under_3.5 |
24.0% |
over_4.5 |
62.1% |
| under_4.5 |
37.9% |
over_5.5 |
47.8% |
under_5.5 |
52.2% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
56.8% |
under_3.5 |
43.2% |
over_4.5 |
40.2% |
| under_4.5 |
59.8% |
over_5.5 |
26.4% |
under_5.5 |
73.6% |
|
most
| home |
59.3% |
draw |
9.7% |
away |
31.0% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
29.7% |
away_+3.5 |
70.4% |
home_-1.5 |
49.1% |
| away_+1.5 |
50.9% |
home_-0.5 |
59.3% |
away_+0.5 |
40.7% |
| home_+0.5 |
69.0% |
away_-0.5 |
31.0% |
home_+1.5 |
77.5% |
| away_-1.5 |
22.5% |
home_+3.5 |
89.8% |
away_-3.5 |
10.2% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
61.7% |
under_22.5 |
38.3% |
over_24.5 |
50.0% |
| under_24.5 |
50.0% |
over_26.5 |
38.6% |
under_26.5 |
61.4% |
| over_28.5 |
28.2% |
under_28.5 |
71.8% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
74.9% |
under_10.5 |
25.1% |
over_12.5 |
60.4% |
| under_12.5 |
39.6% |
over_14.5 |
45.4% |
under_14.5 |
54.6% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
47.5% |
under_10.5 |
52.5% |
over_12.5 |
31.1% |
| under_12.5 |
69.0% |
over_14.5 |
18.6% |
under_14.5 |
81.4% |
|
most
| home |
67.5% |
draw |
5.2% |
away |
27.4% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
44.2% |
away_+4.5 |
55.8% |
home_-2.5 |
56.1% |
| away_+2.5 |
43.9% |
home_-0.5 |
67.5% |
away_+0.5 |
32.6% |
| home_+0.5 |
72.6% |
away_-0.5 |
27.4% |
home_+2.5 |
81.6% |
| away_-2.5 |
18.4% |
home_+4.5 |
88.5% |
away_-4.5 |
11.5% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
72.0% |
under_6.5 |
28.0% |
over_7.5 |
60.4% |
| under_7.5 |
39.6% |
over_8.5 |
48.4% |
under_8.5 |
51.6% |
| over_9.5 |
37.1% |
under_9.5 |
62.9% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
69.5% |
under_3.5 |
30.5% |
over_4.5 |
53.8% |
| under_4.5 |
46.2% |
over_5.5 |
38.8% |
under_5.5 |
61.2% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
47.1% |
under_3.5 |
52.9% |
over_4.5 |
30.3% |
| under_4.5 |
69.7% |
over_5.5 |
17.8% |
under_5.5 |
82.2% |
|
most
| home |
60.4% |
draw |
11.4% |
away |
28.2% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
36.3% |
away_+2.5 |
63.7% |
home_-0.5 |
60.4% |
| away_+0.5 |
39.6% |
home_+0.5 |
71.8% |
away_-0.5 |
28.2% |
| home_+2.5 |
88.4% |
away_-2.5 |
11.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
75.1% |
under_2.5 |
24.9% |
over_3.5 |
55.2% |
| under_3.5 |
44.8% |
over_4.5 |
35.7% |
under_4.5 |
64.4% |
| over_5.5 |
20.3% |
under_5.5 |
79.7% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
47.7% |
under_1.5 |
52.3% |
over_2.5 |
21.8% |
| under_2.5 |
78.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
67.4% |
under_1.5 |
32.6% |
over_2.5 |
40.9% |
| under_2.5 |
59.1% |
most
| home |
26.4% |
draw |
19.8% |
away |
53.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
12.3% |
away_+1.5 |
87.7% |
home_-0.5 |
26.4% |
| away_+0.5 |
73.6% |
home_+0.5 |
46.2% |
away_-0.5 |
53.8% |
| home_+1.5 |
66.6% |
away_-1.5 |
33.4% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
60.4% |
under_20.5 |
39.6% |
over_22.5 |
44.1% |
| under_22.5 |
55.9% |
over_24.5 |
29.2% |
under_24.5 |
70.8% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
58.5% |
under_9.5 |
41.5% |
over_11.5 |
35.3% |
| under_11.5 |
64.7% |
over_13.5 |
17.6% |
under_13.5 |
82.4% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
70.6% |
under_9.5 |
29.4% |
over_11.5 |
48.4% |
| under_11.5 |
51.6% |
over_13.5 |
28.0% |
under_13.5 |
72.0% |
|
most
| home |
36.8% |
draw |
8.0% |
away |
55.2% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
16.9% |
away_+3.5 |
83.1% |
home_-0.5 |
36.8% |
| away_+0.5 |
63.2% |
home_+2.5 |
61.1% |
away_-2.5 |
39.0% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Premier League
Manchester City
Sunderland