Shots
| Over 22.5 |
62.4% |
Over 24.5 |
50.8% |
Over 26.5 |
39.4% |
Over 28.5 |
29.1% |
| Most: Leeds |
60.9% |
Most: Crystal Palace |
33.6% |
| Leeds Over 13.2 |
48.7% |
Crystal Palace Over 13.2 |
29.4% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
70.5% |
Over 7.5 |
58.5% |
Over 8.5 |
46.4% |
Over 9.5 |
35.2% |
| Most: Leeds |
50.2% |
Most: Crystal Palace |
37.5% |
| Leeds Over 4.2 |
45.6% |
Crystal Palace Over 4.2 |
36.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
68.6% |
Over 3.5 |
47.1% |
Over 4.5 |
28.1% |
| Most: Leeds |
28.4% |
Most: Crystal Palace |
50.2% |
| Leeds Over 1.8 |
44.1% |
Crystal Palace Over 1.8 |
60.4% |
Leeds: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Lukas Nmecha |
3.08 |
1.45 |
0.52 |
37.5% |
26.4% |
15.5% |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
2.62 |
1.14 |
0.35 |
59.5% |
61.5% |
24.3% |
| Harry Wilson |
2.74 |
0.94 |
0.36 |
49.1% |
58.6% |
22.8% |
| Noah Okafor |
2.05 |
0.91 |
0.39 |
38.5% |
29.9% |
18.8% |
| Brenden Aaronson |
1.57 |
0.53 |
0.13 |
32.1% |
31.8% |
9.1% |
Crystal Palace: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Eddie Nketiah |
3.43 |
1.41 |
0.31 |
33.0% |
25.5% |
8.4% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen |
1.82 |
0.87 |
0.33 |
48.3% |
40.1% |
22.1% |
| Evann Guessand |
1.76 |
0.84 |
0.31 |
43.9% |
34.1% |
19.2% |
| Dwight McNeil |
1.77 |
0.51 |
0.12 |
27.1% |
30.0% |
7.2% |
| Daniel Muñoz |
1.07 |
0.46 |
0.13 |
35.0% |
26.5% |
11.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Leeds clean sheet |
31.3% |
| Crystal Palace clean sheet |
18.8% |
| Leeds win to nil |
24.8% |
| Crystal Palace win to nil |
12.3% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
48.8% |
draw |
25.3% |
away |
25.9% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
74.1% |
12 |
74.7% |
X2 |
51.2% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
22.5% |
home_by_2 |
15.0% |
home_by_3plus |
11.3% |
| away_by_1 |
15.4% |
away_by_2 |
7.2% |
away_by_3plus |
3.3% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
6.5% |
0-1 |
6.3% |
0-2 |
4.0% |
| 0-3 |
1.5% |
0-4 |
0.4% |
0-5 |
0.1% |
| 1-0 |
9.3% |
1-1 |
12.0% |
1-2 |
6.6% |
| 1-3 |
2.6% |
1-4 |
0.8% |
1-5 |
0.2% |
| 2-0 |
8.3% |
2-1 |
9.5% |
2-2 |
5.5% |
| 2-3 |
2.1% |
2-4 |
0.6% |
2-5 |
0.2% |
| 3-0 |
4.6% |
3-1 |
5.3% |
3-2 |
3.1% |
| 3-3 |
1.2% |
3-4 |
0.3% |
3-5 |
0.1% |
| 4-0 |
1.9% |
4-1 |
2.2% |
4-2 |
1.3% |
| 4-3 |
0.5% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
0.7% |
5-1 |
0.7% |
5-2 |
0.4% |
| 5-3 |
0.2% |
5-4 |
0.1% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
0.9% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
12.0% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
93.5% |
under_0.5 |
6.5% |
over_1.5 |
77.9% |
| under_1.5 |
22.1% |
over_2.5 |
53.7% |
under_2.5 |
46.4% |
| over_3.5 |
31.4% |
under_3.5 |
68.6% |
over_4.5 |
15.7% |
| under_4.5 |
84.4% |
over_5.5 |
6.8% |
under_5.5 |
93.3% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
81.1% |
under_0.5 |
18.9% |
over_1.5 |
49.7% |
| under_1.5 |
50.3% |
over_2.5 |
23.5% |
under_2.5 |
76.5% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
68.4% |
under_0.5 |
31.6% |
over_1.5 |
32.1% |
| under_1.5 |
67.9% |
over_2.5 |
11.2% |
under_2.5 |
88.8% |
|
most
| home |
48.8% |
draw |
25.3% |
away |
25.9% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
11.3% |
away_+2.5 |
88.7% |
home_-1.5 |
26.3% |
| away_+1.5 |
73.7% |
home_-0.5 |
48.8% |
away_+0.5 |
51.2% |
| home_+0.5 |
74.1% |
away_-0.5 |
25.9% |
home_+1.5 |
89.5% |
| away_-1.5 |
10.5% |
home_+2.5 |
96.7% |
away_-2.5 |
3.3% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
6.5% |
exact_1 |
15.6% |
exact_2 |
24.2% |
| exact_3 |
22.3% |
exact_4 |
15.7% |
exact_5 |
8.9% |
| exact_6 |
4.2% |
exact_7plus |
2.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
53.3% |
draw |
35.7% |
away |
11.0% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
73.2% |
under_0.5 |
26.8% |
over_1.5 |
37.9% |
| under_1.5 |
62.1% |
over_2.5 |
14.7% |
under_2.5 |
85.3% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
26.8% |
exact_1 |
35.3% |
exact_2 |
23.2% |
| exact_3 |
10.2% |
exact_4plus |
4.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
31.1% |
draw |
36.1% |
away |
32.8% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
78.6% |
under_0.5 |
21.4% |
over_1.5 |
45.6% |
| under_1.5 |
54.4% |
over_2.5 |
20.2% |
under_2.5 |
79.8% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
41.3% |
H/D |
8.4% |
H/A |
3.7% |
| D/H |
11.1% |
D/D |
12.9% |
D/A |
11.7% |
| A/H |
0.9% |
A/D |
2.1% |
A/A |
7.9% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
74.4% |
under_7.5 |
25.6% |
over_8.5 |
63.4% |
| under_8.5 |
36.6% |
over_9.5 |
51.7% |
under_9.5 |
48.3% |
| over_10.5 |
40.4% |
under_10.5 |
59.7% |
over_11.5 |
30.1% |
| under_11.5 |
69.9% |
over_12.5 |
21.5% |
under_12.5 |
78.5% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
74.5% |
under_3.5 |
25.5% |
over_4.5 |
60.2% |
| under_4.5 |
39.8% |
over_5.5 |
45.8% |
under_5.5 |
54.3% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
60.0% |
under_3.5 |
40.0% |
over_4.5 |
43.5% |
| under_4.5 |
56.5% |
over_5.5 |
29.3% |
under_5.5 |
70.7% |
|
most
| home |
55.9% |
draw |
9.9% |
away |
34.2% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
26.9% |
away_+3.5 |
73.1% |
home_-1.5 |
45.7% |
| away_+1.5 |
54.3% |
home_-0.5 |
55.9% |
away_+0.5 |
44.1% |
| home_+0.5 |
65.8% |
away_-0.5 |
34.2% |
home_+1.5 |
74.7% |
| away_-1.5 |
25.3% |
home_+3.5 |
88.0% |
away_-3.5 |
12.0% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
62.4% |
under_22.5 |
37.6% |
over_24.5 |
50.8% |
| under_24.5 |
49.2% |
over_26.5 |
39.4% |
under_26.5 |
60.6% |
| over_28.5 |
29.1% |
under_28.5 |
70.9% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
71.6% |
under_10.5 |
28.4% |
over_12.5 |
56.4% |
| under_12.5 |
43.6% |
over_14.5 |
41.3% |
under_14.5 |
58.7% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
53.3% |
under_10.5 |
46.7% |
over_12.5 |
36.7% |
| under_12.5 |
63.3% |
over_14.5 |
23.1% |
under_14.5 |
76.9% |
|
most
| home |
60.9% |
draw |
5.6% |
away |
33.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
37.6% |
away_+4.5 |
62.5% |
home_-2.5 |
49.2% |
| away_+2.5 |
50.8% |
home_-0.5 |
60.9% |
away_+0.5 |
39.2% |
| home_+0.5 |
66.4% |
away_-0.5 |
33.6% |
home_+2.5 |
76.4% |
| away_-2.5 |
23.6% |
home_+4.5 |
84.5% |
away_-4.5 |
15.5% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
70.5% |
under_6.5 |
29.5% |
over_7.5 |
58.5% |
| under_7.5 |
41.5% |
over_8.5 |
46.4% |
under_8.5 |
53.6% |
| over_9.5 |
35.2% |
under_9.5 |
64.8% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
62.3% |
under_3.5 |
37.7% |
over_4.5 |
45.6% |
| under_4.5 |
54.4% |
over_5.5 |
30.9% |
under_5.5 |
69.1% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
53.5% |
under_3.5 |
46.5% |
over_4.5 |
36.4% |
| under_4.5 |
63.6% |
over_5.5 |
22.8% |
under_5.5 |
77.2% |
|
most
| home |
50.2% |
draw |
12.3% |
away |
37.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
27.0% |
away_+2.5 |
73.0% |
home_-0.5 |
50.2% |
| away_+0.5 |
49.8% |
home_+0.5 |
62.5% |
away_-0.5 |
37.5% |
| home_+2.5 |
82.7% |
away_-2.5 |
17.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
68.6% |
under_2.5 |
31.4% |
over_3.5 |
47.1% |
| under_3.5 |
52.9% |
over_4.5 |
28.1% |
under_4.5 |
71.9% |
| over_5.5 |
14.7% |
under_5.5 |
85.3% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
44.1% |
under_1.5 |
55.9% |
over_2.5 |
19.0% |
| under_2.5 |
81.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
60.4% |
under_1.5 |
39.6% |
over_2.5 |
33.4% |
| under_2.5 |
66.6% |
most
| home |
28.4% |
draw |
21.4% |
away |
50.2% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
13.0% |
away_+1.5 |
87.1% |
home_-0.5 |
28.4% |
| away_+0.5 |
71.6% |
home_+0.5 |
49.8% |
away_-0.5 |
50.2% |
| home_+1.5 |
70.8% |
away_-1.5 |
29.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
54.9% |
under_20.5 |
45.1% |
over_22.5 |
38.6% |
| under_22.5 |
61.4% |
over_24.5 |
24.5% |
under_24.5 |
75.5% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
55.9% |
under_9.5 |
44.1% |
over_11.5 |
32.8% |
| under_11.5 |
67.2% |
over_13.5 |
15.8% |
under_13.5 |
84.2% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
66.1% |
under_9.5 |
33.9% |
over_11.5 |
43.3% |
| under_11.5 |
56.7% |
over_13.5 |
23.6% |
under_13.5 |
76.4% |
|
most
| home |
38.4% |
draw |
8.2% |
away |
53.4% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
17.8% |
away_+3.5 |
82.2% |
home_-0.5 |
38.4% |
| away_+0.5 |
61.6% |
home_+2.5 |
63.1% |
away_-2.5 |
36.9% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Premier League
Leeds
Crystal Palace