Premier League
Brentford vs 
Chelsea Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 60.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 79.2% for over 2.5 to 24.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.3%. Head to head on cards, Chelsea are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.1%, with a level count at 19.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 79.2% | 20.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 24.9% | 75.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
55.0%
28.1%
68.5%
42.3%
Card handicap
| Brentford line | Brentford | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.4% | 84.6% |
| -0.5 | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| +0.5 | 50.0% | 50.1% |
| +1.5 | 69.2% | 30.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 26.7% | 73.3% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Brentford vs Chelsea. Slightly more cards are projected for Chelsea for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
60.7%Over 3.5 cards5.7%Any red card55.0%Brentford over 1.5 cards68.5%Chelsea over 1.5 cards41.2%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Brentford over 1.5 cards sits at 55.0% and Chelsea at 68.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 5.7% (Brentford 1.5%, Chelsea 4.3%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Brentford vs Chelsea?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 60.7% for Brentford vs Chelsea.
Will there be a red card in Brentford vs Chelsea?
The model rates a red card for either side at 5.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Brentford vs Chelsea?
The model rates Chelsea to pick up more cards at 50.1%, with a level count at 19.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,111 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 16 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
