ChampionshipLincoln vs Swansea Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
Result
The highest-probability cover, Draw or Swansea (72.5%), landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Draw or Away at 72.5%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Swansea are favoured at 44.9%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lincoln by 1 | 16.8% |
| Lincoln by 2 | 7.6% |
| Lincoln by 3+ | 3.2% |
| Swansea by 1 | 22.7% |
| Swansea by 2 | 13.7% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 8.5% |
| Draw | 27.6% |
Goal handicap
| Lincoln line | Lincoln | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10.8% | 89.2% |
| -0.5 | 27.5% | 72.5% |
| +0.5 | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| +1.5 | 77.8% | 22.2% |
This season (2026/27)
0.9Lincoln goals scored per game0.8Lincoln goals conceded per game1.6Swansea goals scored per game0.7Swansea goals conceded per gameDouble chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is draw or Swansea on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
50.9%Both Teams to Score46.0%Over 2.5 goalsFor context, Swansea are favoured at 44.9%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
Which double chance landed in Lincoln vs Swansea?
Draw or Away was the highest-probability cover at 72.5%; it landed, final score 1-2.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 40,105 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
