ChampionshipLincoln vs Swansea Shots
Result
Settled, final score 1-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 51.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 63.8% for over 22.5 to 28.0% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.3%. Head to head on shots, Lincoln are the model’s pick to have more shots at 61.2%, with a level count at 6.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| 26.5 shots | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| 28.5 shots | 28.0% | 72.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
73.4%
57.1%
40.7%
54.8%
36.6%
22.0%
Shot handicap
| Lincoln line | Lincoln | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| -2.5 | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| -0.5 | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| +0.5 | 67.2% | 32.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 33.6% | 66.4% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
12.6Lincoln shots per game15.7Lincoln shots faced per game12.3Swansea shots per game11.0Swansea shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Lincoln.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
51.3%Over 24.5 shots57.1%Lincoln over 12.5 shots36.6%Swansea over 12.5 shots58.0%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Lincoln over 12.5 shots sits at 57.1% and Swansea at 36.6%. This season Lincoln have averaged 12.6 shots a game and Swansea 12.3.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Lincoln vs Swansea?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 51.3% for Lincoln vs Swansea.
Which team will have more shots in Lincoln vs Swansea?
Before kickoff, the model rated Lincoln to take more shots at 61.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
