Super League Greece
Levadeiakos vs 
Olympiakos Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 58.9%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Levadeiakos have averaged 0.0 scored and 2.2 conceded, Olympiakos 0.8 and 0.6 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 41.1% for over 2.5 and 68.2% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 goals a game. Levadeiakos have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Olympiakos in 0 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 89.6% | 10.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 68.2% | 31.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| 3.5 goals | 20.6% | 79.4% |
| 4.5 goals | 8.7% | 91.3% |
| 5.5 goals | 3.1% | 96.9% |
Team goal lines
60.4%
23.7%
6.7%
75.4%
40.9%
16.7%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 76.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 6.8% | 93.2% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 16.6% | 83.4% |
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
46.1%Both Teams to Score41.1%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 41.1% for three or more goals and 68.2% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Olympiakos favoured at 47.4%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Olympiakos to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Levadeiakos 0 · 2 draws · Olympiakos 3 · 3.2 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Levadeiakos vs Olympiakos?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 41.1% for Levadeiakos vs Olympiakos.
Will there be a first-half goal in Levadeiakos vs Olympiakos?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 60.6%.
How often have Levadeiakos gone over 2.5 recently?
Levadeiakos have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Olympiakos in 0 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
AI experts on Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts on this market, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| under_specialist v1.0 | Under 2.5 goals |
More Super League Greece, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
