"Levadeiakos or Olympiakos? We publish probabilities, not certainties." A measured edge to Olympiakos: 47% is the model's line for this Super League Greece meeting on 20 September 2026. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Olympiakos at 72%. Caution noted. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 41% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 46%. The run in: Levadeiakos arrive W1 D1 L4, Olympiakos W3 D2 L1. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Levadeiakos, 2 draws and 3 for Olympiakos at 3.2 goals per match. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
High risk
Olympiakos win47.4%@ 2.11
Over 8.5 corners45.8%@ 2.18
Over 2.5 goals41.1%@ 2.43
Medium risk
Not both teams to score53.9%@ 1.86
Levadeiakos or draw52.6%@ 1.90
Random finds
1-1 correct score13.3%@ 7.52
0-1 correct score13.0%@ 7.67
0-0 correct score10.4%@ 9.62
Model vs market
Levadeiakos
24.2%+14.6%
Draw
28.4%+9.8%
Olympiakos
47.4%-24.4%
ModelMarket
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10)
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely68.2%Fair 1.47
Over 2.5Unlikely41.1%Fair 2.43
BTTS · YesClose call46.1%Fair 2.17
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call45.8%Fair 2.18
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely35.5%Fair 2.82
Over 10.5 cornersLong shot26.5%Fair 3.77
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot19.1%Fair 5.24
Most cornersLevadeiakos46.8%Olympiakos41.5%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsClose call51.4%Fair 1.95
Over 24.5 shotsUnlikely40.0%Fair 2.50
Over 26.5 shotsLong shot29.7%Fair 3.36
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot21.0%Fair 4.76
Recent shot volume
Levadeiakos10.2 taken13.0 faced
Olympiakos17.7 taken8.8 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.568.2%2.541.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.568.2%
Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10).
Form & head-to-head
LevadeiakosLLLLD
OlympiakosDWWDL
Last 5 meetings: Levadeiakos 0 · 2 draws · Olympiakos 3 · 3.2 goals/game.
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
BookmakerOur fair
Levadeiakos win8.504.13
Draw4.753.52
Olympiakos win1.332.11
Over 2.5 goals1.902.43
Under 2.5 goals1.901.70
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Levadeiakos win4.13
Draw3.52
Olympiakos win2.11
Both teams to score2.17
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.12
Over 1.5 goals1.47
Over 2.5 goals2.43
Over 3.5 goals4.85
Levadeiakos most4.13
Olympiakos most2.11
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.67
Over 8.5 corners2.13
Over 9.5 corners2.88
Over 10.5 corners4.10
Levadeiakos most2.13
Olympiakos most2.40
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.16
Over 3.5 cards1.39
Over 4.5 cards1.86
Over 5.5 cards2.76
Levadeiakos most2.64
Olympiakos most2.30
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.50
Over 7.5 SoT1.83
Over 8.5 SoT2.33
Over 9.5 SoT3.08
Levadeiakos most2.43
Olympiakos most2.14
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.95
Over 24.5 shots2.50
Over 26.5 shots3.36
Over 28.5 shots4.76
Levadeiakos most1.93
Olympiakos most2.37
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.11
Over 22.5 fouls1.21
Over 24.5 fouls1.39
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
51.4%
Over 24.5
40.0%
Over 26.5
29.7%
Over 28.5
21.0%
Most: Levadeiakos
51.9%
Most: Olympiakos
42.2%
Levadeiakos Over 13.2
35.3%
Olympiakos Over 13.2
28.8%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
66.5%
Over 7.5
54.6%
Over 8.5
43.0%
Over 9.5
32.5%
Most: Levadeiakos
41.1%
Most: Olympiakos
46.6%
Levadeiakos Over 4.2
36.6%
Olympiakos Over 4.2
40.5%
Cards
Over 2.5
86.5%
Over 3.5
71.8%
Over 4.5
53.8%
Most: Levadeiakos
37.9%
Most: Olympiakos
43.5%
Levadeiakos Over 1.8
68.3%
Olympiakos Over 1.8
71.7%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Levadeiakos clean sheet
24.6%
Olympiakos clean sheet
39.5%
Levadeiakos win to nil
14.2%
Olympiakos win to nil
29.1%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
24.2%
draw
28.4%
away
47.4%
double_chance
1X
52.6%
12
71.6%
X2
75.8%
dnb
home
33.8%
away
66.2%
btts
yes
46.1%
no
53.9%
clean_sheet
home
24.6%
away
39.6%
win_to_nil
home
14.2%
away
29.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1
15.7%
home_by_2
6.3%
home_by_3plus
2.2%
away_by_1
24.1%
away_by_2
14.5%
away_by_3plus
8.9%
correct_score
0-0
10.4%
0-1
13.0%
0-2
9.6%
0-3
4.5%
0-4
1.6%
0-5
0.4%
1-0
8.4%
1-1
13.3%
1-2
8.9%
1-3
4.1%
1-4
1.5%
1-5
0.4%
2-0
4.2%
2-1
5.9%
2-2
4.1%
2-3
1.9%
2-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-0
1.3%
3-1
1.8%
3-2
1.3%
3-3
0.6%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
4-1
0.4%
4-2
0.3%
4-3
0.1%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.4%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
13.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
89.6%
under_0.5
10.4%
over_1.5
68.2%
under_1.5
31.8%
over_2.5
41.1%
under_2.5
58.9%
over_3.5
20.6%
under_3.5
79.4%
over_4.5
8.7%
under_4.5
91.3%
over_5.5
3.1%
under_5.5
96.9%
odd_even
odd
48.3%
even
51.7%
team_home
over_0.5
60.4%
under_0.5
39.6%
over_1.5
23.7%
under_1.5
76.3%
over_2.5
6.7%
under_2.5
93.3%
team_away
over_0.5
75.4%
under_0.5
24.6%
over_1.5
40.9%
under_1.5
59.1%
over_2.5
16.7%
under_2.5
83.3%
most
home
24.2%
draw
28.4%
away
47.4%
handicap
home_-2.5
2.2%
away_+2.5
97.8%
home_-1.5
8.5%
away_+1.5
91.5%
home_-0.5
24.2%
away_+0.5
75.8%
home_+0.5
52.6%
away_-0.5
47.4%
home_+1.5
76.7%
away_-1.5
23.3%
home_+2.5
91.1%
away_-2.5
8.9%
total_exact
exact_0
10.4%
exact_1
21.5%
exact_2
27.1%
exact_3
20.5%
exact_4
11.9%
exact_5
5.6%
exact_6
2.2%
exact_7plus
1.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
14.5%
draw
47.1%
away
38.4%
total
over_0.5
60.6%
under_0.5
39.4%
over_1.5
23.9%
under_1.5
76.1%
over_2.5
6.8%
under_2.5
93.2%
btts
yes
12.0%
no
88.1%
total_exact
exact_0
39.4%
exact_1
36.7%
exact_2
17.1%
exact_3
5.3%
exact_4plus
1.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
28.7%
draw
38.3%
away
33.0%
total
over_0.5
75.3%
under_0.5
24.7%
over_1.5
40.8%
under_1.5
59.2%
over_2.5
16.6%
under_2.5
83.4%
btts
yes
25.2%
no
74.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
10.2%
H/D
3.0%
H/A
1.3%
D/H
13.5%
D/D
18.0%
D/A
15.5%
A/H
2.4%
A/D
6.3%
A/A
29.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
59.9%
under_7.5
40.2%
over_8.5
46.9%
under_8.5
53.1%
over_9.5
34.8%
under_9.5
65.3%
over_10.5
24.4%
under_10.5
75.6%
over_11.5
16.3%
under_11.5
83.8%
over_12.5
10.3%
under_12.5
89.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
59.9%
under_3.5
40.1%
over_4.5
43.2%
under_4.5
56.8%
over_5.5
28.8%
under_5.5
71.2%
team_away
over_3.5
56.1%
under_3.5
43.9%
over_4.5
39.2%
under_4.5
60.8%
over_5.5
25.3%
under_5.5
74.8%
most
home
46.9%
draw
11.4%
away
41.7%
handicap
home_-3.5
17.6%
away_+3.5
82.4%
home_-1.5
35.8%
away_+1.5
64.2%
home_-0.5
46.9%
away_+0.5
53.1%
home_+0.5
58.3%
away_-0.5
41.7%
home_+1.5
69.1%
away_-1.5
31.0%
home_+3.5
85.6%
away_-3.5
14.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
51.4%
under_22.5
48.6%
over_24.5
40.0%
under_24.5
60.0%
over_26.5
29.7%
under_26.5
70.3%
over_28.5
21.0%
under_28.5
79.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
58.5%
under_10.5
41.5%
over_12.5
42.6%
under_12.5
57.4%
over_14.5
28.7%
under_14.5
71.3%
team_away
over_10.5
51.7%
under_10.5
48.3%
over_12.5
35.7%
under_12.5
64.3%
over_14.5
22.8%
under_14.5
77.2%
most
home
51.9%
draw
5.9%
away
42.2%
handicap
home_-4.5
29.1%
away_+4.5
70.9%
home_-2.5
40.1%
away_+2.5
59.9%
home_-0.5
51.9%
away_+0.5
48.1%
home_+0.5
57.8%
away_-0.5
42.2%
home_+2.5
69.0%
away_-2.5
31.0%
home_+4.5
78.7%
away_-4.5
21.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
66.5%
under_6.5
33.5%
over_7.5
54.6%
under_7.5
45.4%
over_8.5
43.0%
under_8.5
57.0%
over_9.5
32.5%
under_9.5
67.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
52.9%
under_3.5
47.1%
over_4.5
36.6%
under_4.5
63.4%
over_5.5
23.6%
under_5.5
76.4%
team_away
over_3.5
56.8%
under_3.5
43.3%
over_4.5
40.5%
under_4.5
59.5%
over_5.5
27.1%
under_5.5
72.9%
most
home
41.1%
draw
12.2%
away
46.6%
handicap
home_-2.5
20.3%
away_+2.5
79.7%
home_-0.5
41.1%
away_+0.5
58.9%
home_+0.5
53.4%
away_-0.5
46.6%
home_+2.5
75.5%
away_-2.5
24.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
86.5%
under_2.5
13.5%
over_3.5
71.8%
under_3.5
28.2%
over_4.5
53.8%
under_4.5
46.2%
over_5.5
36.3%
under_5.5
63.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
68.3%
under_1.5
31.8%
over_2.5
42.0%
under_2.5
58.0%
team_away
over_1.5
71.7%
under_1.5
28.3%
over_2.5
46.1%
under_2.5
53.9%
most
home
37.9%
draw
18.6%
away
43.6%
handicap
home_-1.5
21.9%
away_+1.5
78.1%
home_-0.5
37.9%
away_+0.5
62.1%
home_+0.5
56.5%
away_-0.5
43.6%
home_+1.5
73.5%
away_-1.5
26.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
90.1%
under_20.5
9.9%
over_22.5
82.4%
under_22.5
17.6%
over_24.5
72.1%
under_24.5
27.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
78.1%
under_9.5
21.9%
over_11.5
60.2%
under_11.5
39.8%
over_13.5
41.1%
under_13.5
58.9%
team_away
over_9.5
91.1%
under_9.5
8.9%
over_11.5
80.3%
under_11.5
19.8%
over_13.5
65.0%
under_13.5
35.1%
most
home
30.5%
draw
6.0%
away
63.5%
handicap
home_-3.5
15.8%
away_+3.5
84.2%
home_-0.5
30.5%
away_+0.5
69.5%
home_+2.5
49.3%
away_-2.5
50.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
23.4%
no
76.6%
home
yes
12.3%
no
87.8%
away
yes
12.7%
no
87.3%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Super League Greece
Levadeiakos
Olympiakos