Segunda División
Leganes vs 
Granada Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 62.6%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Leganes have averaged 0.6 scored and 0.6 conceded, Granada 1.2 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 37.4% for over 2.5 and 64.9% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 1.5 goals a game. Leganes have gone over 2.5 in 0 of their last 5, Granada in 2 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 88.1% | 11.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 64.9% | 35.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| 3.5 goals | 17.8% | 82.2% |
| 4.5 goals | 7.1% | 92.9% |
| 5.5 goals | 2.4% | 97.6% |
Team goal lines
68.6%
32.3%
11.2%
64.2%
27.5%
8.6%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 23.0% | 77.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 6.4% | 93.6% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 66.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 12.2% | 87.8% |
This season (2026/27)
0.6Leganes goals scored per game0.6Leganes goals conceded per game0.0%Leganes Over 2.5 rate0.2Leganes 1st-half goals per game1.2Granada goals scored per game1.0Granada goals conceded per game40.0%Granada Over 2.5 rate0.2Granada 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
44.7%Both Teams to Score37.4%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 37.4% for three or more goals and 64.9% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Leganes favoured at 38.1%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Leganes to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Leganes 3 · 0 draws · Granada 1 · 1.5 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Leganes vs Granada?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 37.4% for Leganes vs Granada.
Will there be a first-half goal in Leganes vs Granada?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 59.6%.
How often have Leganes gone over 2.5 recently?
Leganes have gone over 2.5 in 0 of their last 5, Granada in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,257 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 41.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
AI experts on Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts on this market, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| treble v1.0 | Under 2.5 goals |
More Segunda División, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
