Segunda DivisiónSabadell vs 
Oviedo Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Under 2.5 goals at 55.3%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Sabadell have averaged 0.8 scored and 0.8 conceded, Oviedo 0.8 and 0.2 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 44.7% for over 2.5 and 71.2% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 2.0 goals a game. Sabadell have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Oviedo in 1 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 90.9% | 9.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 23.5% | 76.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 10.4% | 89.6% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.0% | 96.0% |
Team goal lines
74.7%
39.9%
16.0%
66.5%
29.9%
9.8%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 22.2% | 77.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 6.0% | 94.0% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 18.4% | 81.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 4.4% | 95.6% |
This season (2026/27)
0.8Sabadell goals scored per game0.8Sabadell goals conceded per game20.0%Sabadell Over 2.5 rate0.4Sabadell 1st-half goals per game0.8Oviedo goals scored per game0.2Oviedo goals conceded per game20.0%Oviedo Over 2.5 rate0.4Oviedo 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
50.3%Both Teams to Score44.7%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 44.7% for three or more goals and 71.2% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Sabadell favoured at 42.6%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Sabadell to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sabadell 0 · 0 draws · Oviedo 2 · 2.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sabadell vs Oviedo?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 44.7% for Sabadell vs Oviedo.
Will there be a first-half goal in Sabadell vs Oviedo?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 58.7%.
How often have Sabadell gone over 2.5 recently?
Sabadell have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Oviedo in 1 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
