Segunda DivisiónCeuta vs 
Valladolid Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Under 2.5 goals at 56.1%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Ceuta have averaged 0.4 scored and 3.0 conceded, Valladolid 0.4 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 43.9% for over 2.5 and 70.5% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. Ceuta have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Valladolid in 1 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 90.6% | 9.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 70.5% | 29.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| 3.5 goals | 22.8% | 77.2% |
| 4.5 goals | 10.0% | 90.0% |
| 5.5 goals | 3.8% | 96.2% |
Team goal lines
72.1%
36.4%
13.7%
68.6%
32.2%
11.1%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 72.1% | 27.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 13.8% | 86.2% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 33.2% | 66.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 11.7% | 88.3% |
This season (2026/27)
0.4Ceuta goals scored per game3.0Ceuta goals conceded per game60.0%Ceuta Over 2.5 rate0.2Ceuta 1st-half goals per game0.4Valladolid goals scored per game1.4Valladolid goals conceded per game20.0%Valladolid Over 2.5 rate0.4Valladolid 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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5+
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
50.0%Both Teams to Score43.9%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 43.9% for three or more goals and 70.5% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Ceuta favoured at 38.5%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Ceuta to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Ceuta 0 · 0 draws · Valladolid 2 · 3.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ceuta vs Valladolid?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 43.9% for Ceuta vs Valladolid.
Will there be a first-half goal in Ceuta vs Valladolid?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 72.1%.
How often have Ceuta gone over 2.5 recently?
Ceuta have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Valladolid in 1 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Segunda División, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
