Segunda División
Almeria vs Celta B Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 61.9%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Almeria have averaged 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, Celta B 1.4 and 1.6 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 61.9% for over 2.5 and 83.3% for at least two goals. Almeria have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Celta B in 3 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 95.5% | 4.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 83.3% | 16.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| 3.5 goals | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| 4.5 goals | 21.9% | 78.1% |
| 5.5 goals | 10.5% | 89.5% |
Team goal lines
89.4%
65.5%
38.9%
61.5%
24.8%
7.2%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 80.3% | 19.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 22.3% | 77.7% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 83.4% | 16.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 26.9% | 73.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Almeria goals scored per game0.8Almeria goals conceded per game40.0%Almeria Over 2.5 rate1.2Almeria 1st-half goals per game1.4Celta B goals scored per game1.6Celta B goals conceded per game60.0%Celta B Over 2.5 rate0.2Celta B 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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1
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5+
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
55.4%Both Teams to Score61.9%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 61.9% for three or more goals and 83.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Almeria favoured at 66.0%, they may control possession and keep things tighter.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Almeria to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Almeria vs Celta B?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 61.9% for Almeria vs Celta B.
Will there be a first-half goal in Almeria vs Celta B?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 80.3%.
How often have Almeria gone over 2.5 recently?
Almeria have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Celta B in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 6,518 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
