The probabilities barely separate Leganes and Granada on 20 September 2026: Leganes nose ahead at 38%. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Leganes at 48%. Caution noted. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 37% with both teams to score at 45%. 3) Form guide over the last six: Leganes W3 D2 L1, Granada W2 D2 L2. The recent series reads 3 wins for Leganes, 0 draws and 1 for Granada over 4 games, 1.5 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.22).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 9.5 corners44.6%@ 2.24
Over 2.5 goals37.4%@ 2.67
Over 10.5 corners34.4%@ 2.91
Medium risk
Draw or Granada61.9%@ 1.62
Over 8.5 corners55.7%@ 1.80
Not both teams to score55.3%@ 1.81
Random finds
1-1 correct score14.0%@ 7.13
1-0 correct score12.3%@ 8.10
0-0 correct score11.9%@ 8.40
Model vs market
Leganes
38.1%-10.1%
Draw
30.5%+0.7%
Granada
31.4%+9.3%
ModelMarket
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.22)
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely64.9%Fair 1.54
Over 2.5Unlikely37.4%Fair 2.67
BTTS · YesUnlikely44.7%Fair 2.24
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call55.7%Fair 1.80
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely44.6%Fair 2.24
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely34.4%Fair 2.91
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot25.6%Fair 3.91
Most cornersLeganes53.7%Granada35.1%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely62.2%Fair 1.61
Over 24.5 shotsClose call49.3%Fair 2.03
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely36.9%Fair 2.71
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot25.9%Fair 3.86
Recent shot volume
Leganes8.0 taken15.5 faced
Granada13.3 taken11.2 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.564.9%2.537.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.564.9%
Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.22).
Form & head-to-head
LeganesDWWDL
GranadaDWWLD
Last 4 meetings: Leganes 3 · 0 draws · Granada 1 · 1.5 goals/game.
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
BookmakerOur fair
Leganes win1.962.62
Draw3.103.28
Granada win4.103.18
Over 2.5 goals2.302.67
Under 2.5 goals1.601.60
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Leganes win2.63
Draw3.28
Granada win3.18
Both teams to score2.24
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.14
Over 1.5 goals1.54
Over 2.5 goals2.68
Over 3.5 goals5.61
Leganes most2.63
Granada most3.18
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.43
Over 8.5 corners1.74
Over 9.5 corners2.21
Over 10.5 corners2.97
Leganes most1.86
Granada most2.85
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.16
Over 3.5 cards1.40
Over 4.5 cards1.87
Over 5.5 cards2.79
Leganes most2.60
Granada most2.33
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.39
Over 7.5 SoT1.69
Over 8.5 SoT2.17
Over 9.5 SoT2.97
Leganes most1.86
Granada most3.02
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.61
Over 24.5 shots2.03
Over 26.5 shots2.71
Over 28.5 shots3.86
Leganes most1.63
Granada most3.07
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.16
Over 22.5 fouls1.30
Over 24.5 fouls1.53
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
62.2%
Over 24.5
49.3%
Over 26.5
36.9%
Over 28.5
25.9%
Most: Leganes
61.3%
Most: Granada
32.6%
Leganes Over 13.2
47.3%
Granada Over 13.2
27.2%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
72.1%
Over 7.5
59.3%
Over 8.5
46.0%
Over 9.5
33.6%
Most: Leganes
53.8%
Most: Granada
33.1%
Leganes Over 4.2
48.2%
Granada Over 4.2
33.2%
Cards
Over 2.5
86.3%
Over 3.5
71.4%
Over 4.5
53.4%
Most: Leganes
38.5%
Most: Granada
42.9%
Leganes Over 1.8
68.4%
Granada Over 1.8
71.1%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Leganes clean sheet
35.7%
Granada clean sheet
31.4%
Leganes win to nil
23.8%
Granada win to nil
19.5%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
38.1%
draw
30.5%
away
31.5%
double_chance
1X
68.6%
12
69.5%
X2
62.0%
dnb
home
54.8%
away
45.3%
btts
yes
44.7%
no
55.3%
clean_sheet
home
35.8%
away
31.4%
win_to_nil
home
23.9%
away
19.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1
21.8%
home_by_2
11.0%
home_by_3plus
5.3%
away_by_1
19.3%
away_by_2
8.7%
away_by_3plus
3.5%
correct_score
0-0
11.9%
0-1
10.9%
0-2
5.9%
0-3
2.0%
0-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
12.3%
1-1
14.0%
1-2
6.9%
1-3
2.4%
1-4
0.6%
1-5
0.1%
2-0
7.5%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
4.0%
2-3
1.4%
2-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
2.9%
3-1
3.0%
3-2
1.5%
3-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
4-0
0.8%
4-1
0.9%
4-2
0.4%
4-3
0.2%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.2%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.2%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
14.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
88.1%
under_0.5
11.9%
over_1.5
64.9%
under_1.5
35.1%
over_2.5
37.4%
under_2.5
62.6%
over_3.5
17.8%
under_3.5
82.2%
over_4.5
7.1%
under_4.5
92.9%
over_5.5
2.4%
under_5.5
97.6%
odd_even
odd
48.0%
even
52.0%
team_home
over_0.5
68.6%
under_0.5
31.4%
over_1.5
32.3%
under_1.5
67.8%
over_2.5
11.2%
under_2.5
88.8%
team_away
over_0.5
64.2%
under_0.5
35.8%
over_1.5
27.5%
under_1.5
72.6%
over_2.5
8.6%
under_2.5
91.4%
most
home
38.1%
draw
30.5%
away
31.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
5.3%
away_+2.5
94.8%
home_-1.5
16.3%
away_+1.5
83.7%
home_-0.5
38.1%
away_+0.5
62.0%
home_+0.5
68.6%
away_-0.5
31.5%
home_+1.5
87.8%
away_-1.5
12.2%
home_+2.5
96.5%
away_-2.5
3.5%
total_exact
exact_0
11.9%
exact_1
23.2%
exact_2
27.5%
exact_3
19.6%
exact_4
10.7%
exact_5
4.7%
exact_6
1.7%
exact_7plus
0.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
23.4%
draw
49.1%
away
27.5%
total
over_0.5
59.6%
under_0.5
40.4%
over_1.5
23.0%
under_1.5
77.0%
over_2.5
6.4%
under_2.5
93.6%
btts
yes
13.2%
no
86.8%
total_exact
exact_0
40.4%
exact_1
36.6%
exact_2
16.6%
exact_3
5.0%
exact_4plus
1.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
34.8%
draw
41.5%
away
23.7%
total
over_0.5
70.1%
under_0.5
29.9%
over_1.5
34.1%
under_1.5
66.0%
over_2.5
12.2%
under_2.5
87.8%
btts
yes
20.2%
no
79.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
18.7%
H/D
3.7%
H/A
1.0%
D/H
17.1%
D/D
20.4%
D/A
11.6%
A/H
2.3%
A/D
5.7%
A/A
19.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
69.7%
under_7.5
30.3%
over_8.5
57.6%
under_8.5
42.4%
over_9.5
45.2%
under_9.5
54.8%
over_10.5
33.7%
under_10.5
66.3%
over_11.5
23.8%
under_11.5
76.2%
over_12.5
16.1%
under_12.5
83.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
71.3%
under_3.5
28.7%
over_4.5
55.4%
under_4.5
44.6%
over_5.5
39.9%
under_5.5
60.1%
team_away
over_3.5
58.5%
under_3.5
41.5%
over_4.5
41.1%
under_4.5
58.9%
over_5.5
26.4%
under_5.5
73.6%
most
home
53.8%
draw
11.0%
away
35.1%
handicap
home_-3.5
22.7%
away_+3.5
77.3%
home_-1.5
42.6%
away_+1.5
57.4%
home_-0.5
53.8%
away_+0.5
46.2%
home_+0.5
64.9%
away_-0.5
35.1%
home_+1.5
74.8%
away_-1.5
25.2%
home_+3.5
89.1%
away_-3.5
10.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
62.2%
under_22.5
37.8%
over_24.5
49.3%
under_24.5
50.7%
over_26.5
36.9%
under_26.5
63.1%
over_28.5
25.9%
under_28.5
74.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
72.8%
under_10.5
27.3%
over_12.5
55.9%
under_12.5
44.1%
over_14.5
39.0%
under_14.5
61.0%
team_away
over_10.5
53.7%
under_10.5
46.3%
over_12.5
35.1%
under_12.5
64.9%
over_14.5
20.5%
under_14.5
79.5%
most
home
61.3%
draw
6.1%
away
32.6%
handicap
home_-4.5
35.6%
away_+4.5
64.4%
home_-2.5
48.4%
away_+2.5
51.6%
home_-0.5
61.3%
away_+0.5
38.7%
home_+0.5
67.5%
away_-0.5
32.6%
home_+2.5
78.3%
away_-2.5
21.7%
home_+4.5
86.6%
away_-4.5
13.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
72.1%
under_6.5
27.9%
over_7.5
59.3%
under_7.5
40.7%
over_8.5
46.0%
under_8.5
54.0%
over_9.5
33.6%
under_9.5
66.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
66.2%
under_3.5
33.8%
over_4.5
48.2%
under_4.5
51.8%
over_5.5
31.7%
under_5.5
68.3%
team_away
over_3.5
51.9%
under_3.5
48.1%
over_4.5
33.2%
under_4.5
66.8%
over_5.5
19.0%
under_5.5
81.0%
most
home
53.8%
draw
13.1%
away
33.1%
handicap
home_-2.5
28.1%
away_+2.5
71.9%
home_-0.5
53.8%
away_+0.5
46.2%
home_+0.5
66.9%
away_-0.5
33.1%
home_+2.5
86.8%
away_-2.5
13.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
86.3%
under_2.5
13.7%
over_3.5
71.4%
under_3.5
28.6%
over_4.5
53.4%
under_4.5
46.6%
over_5.5
35.9%
under_5.5
64.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
68.4%
under_1.5
31.6%
over_2.5
42.1%
under_2.5
57.9%
team_away
over_1.5
71.1%
under_1.5
28.9%
over_2.5
45.4%
under_2.5
54.6%
most
home
38.5%
draw
18.6%
away
42.9%
handicap
home_-1.5
22.3%
away_+1.5
77.7%
home_-0.5
38.5%
away_+0.5
61.5%
home_+0.5
57.1%
away_-0.5
42.9%
home_+1.5
74.1%
away_-1.5
25.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
86.5%
under_20.5
13.5%
over_22.5
77.2%
under_22.5
22.8%
over_24.5
65.5%
under_24.5
34.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
84.9%
under_9.5
15.1%
over_11.5
70.0%
under_11.5
30.0%
over_13.5
52.0%
under_13.5
48.0%
team_away
over_9.5
80.3%
under_9.5
19.8%
over_11.5
63.2%
under_11.5
36.8%
over_13.5
44.3%
under_13.5
55.7%
most
home
52.1%
draw
6.6%
away
41.3%
handicap
home_-3.5
32.7%
away_+3.5
67.3%
home_-0.5
52.1%
away_+0.5
47.9%
home_+2.5
71.0%
away_-2.5
29.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
14.7%
no
85.3%
home
yes
9.2%
no
90.8%
away
yes
6.1%
no
93.9%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Segunda División
Leganes
Granada