Segunda División
Leganes vs 
Granada Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 71.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 86.3% for over 2.5 to 35.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.4%. Between the two sides, Granada are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.9%, with a level count at 18.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 86.3% | 13.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 35.9% | 64.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
68.4%
42.1%
71.1%
45.4%
Card handicap
| Leganes line | Leganes | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.3% | 77.7% |
| -0.5 | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| +0.5 | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| +1.5 | 74.1% | 25.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 86.5% | 13.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 65.5% | 34.5% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Leganes cards per game14.2Leganes fouls per game1.6Granada cards per game13.2Granada fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Leganes vs Granada. It tips Granada for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
71.4%Over 3.5 cards14.7%Any red card68.4%Leganes over 1.5 cards71.1%Granada over 1.5 cards77.2%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Leganes over 1.5 cards sits at 68.4% and Granada at 71.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.7% (Leganes 9.2%, Granada 6.1%). This season Leganes have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Granada 1.6.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Leganes vs Granada?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 71.4% for Leganes vs Granada.
Will there be a red card in Leganes vs Granada?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Leganes vs Granada?
The model rates Granada to pick up more cards at 42.9%, with a level count at 18.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,399 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
