Segunda División
Leganes vs 
Granada Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 44.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 69.7% for over 7.5 to 16.1% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.2%. On the corner count, Leganes are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 53.8%, with a level count at 11.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 69.7% | 30.3% |
| 8.5 corners | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| 9.5 corners | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| 10.5 corners | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| 11.5 corners | 23.8% | 76.2% |
| 12.5 corners | 16.1% | 83.9% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
71.3%
55.4%
39.9%
58.5%
41.1%
26.4%
Corner handicap
| Leganes line | Leganes | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| -0.5 | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| +0.5 | 64.9% | 35.1% |
| +1.5 | 74.8% | 25.2% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Leganes corners won per game6.4Leganes corners conceded per game4.2Granada corners won per game3.2Granada corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Leganes.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
45.2%Over 9.5 corners55.4%Leganes over 4.5 corners41.1%Granada over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Leganes over 4.5 corners sits at 55.4% and Granada at 41.1%. This season Leganes have averaged 2.0 corners won a game and Granada 4.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Leganes vs Granada?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 45.2% for Leganes vs Granada.
Which team will win the corner count in Leganes vs Granada?
The model rates Leganes to win the corner count at 53.8%, with a level count at 11.0%.
How many corners do Leganes and Granada average this season?
Leganes have won 2.0 corners a game this season and Granada 4.2.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Segunda División, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
