Segunda División
Las Palmas vs Burgos Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 65.2%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Las Palmas have averaged 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, Burgos 1.6 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 34.8% for over 2.5 and 62.4% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 0.8 goals a game. Las Palmas have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Burgos in 3 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 87.0% | 13.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 34.8% | 65.2% |
| 3.5 goals | 15.9% | 84.1% |
| 4.5 goals | 6.1% | 93.9% |
| 5.5 goals | 2.0% | 98.0% |
Team goal lines
69.5%
33.3%
11.8%
59.4%
22.8%
6.3%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 27.1% | 72.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 8.4% | 91.6% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 28.3% | 71.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 9.0% | 91.0% |
This season (2026/27)
1.4Las Palmas goals scored per game1.2Las Palmas goals conceded per game40.0%Las Palmas Over 2.5 rate0.4Las Palmas 1st-half goals per game1.6Burgos goals scored per game1.2Burgos goals conceded per game60.0%Burgos Over 2.5 rate0.8Burgos 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
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5+
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
41.9%Both Teams to Score34.8%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 34.8% for three or more goals and 62.4% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Las Palmas favoured at 41.8%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Las Palmas to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Las Palmas 0 · 3 draws · Burgos 2 · 0.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Las Palmas vs Burgos?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 34.8% for Las Palmas vs Burgos.
Will there be a first-half goal in Las Palmas vs Burgos?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 63.9%.
How often have Las Palmas gone over 2.5 recently?
Las Palmas have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Burgos in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,257 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 41.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
AI experts on Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts on this market, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| under_specialist v1.0 | Under 2.5 goals |
| treble v1.0 | Under 2.5 goals |
More Segunda División, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
