Segunda DivisiónCeuta vs 
Valladolid Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 43.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 68.5% for over 7.5 to 15.1% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.2%. Between the two sides, Ceuta are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 52.1%, with a level count at 11.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| 8.5 corners | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| 9.5 corners | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 32.3% | 67.7% |
| 11.5 corners | 22.7% | 77.3% |
| 12.5 corners | 15.1% | 84.9% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
69.4%
53.2%
37.7%
58.9%
41.5%
26.8%
Corner handicap
| Ceuta line | Ceuta | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40.7% | 59.3% |
| -0.5 | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| +0.5 | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| +1.5 | 73.4% | 26.6% |
This season (2026/27)
5.2Ceuta corners won per game2.8Ceuta corners conceded per game3.6Valladolid corners won per game3.8Valladolid corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Ceuta.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
43.7%Over 9.5 corners53.2%Ceuta over 4.5 corners41.5%Valladolid over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Ceuta over 4.5 corners sits at 53.2% and Valladolid at 41.5%. This season Ceuta have averaged 5.2 corners won a game and Valladolid 3.6.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Ceuta vs Valladolid?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 43.7% for Ceuta vs Valladolid.
Which team will win the corner count in Ceuta vs Valladolid?
The model rates Ceuta to win the corner count at 52.1%, with a level count at 11.2%.
How many corners do Ceuta and Valladolid average this season?
Ceuta have won 5.2 corners a game this season and Valladolid 3.6.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
