Segunda División
Almeria vs Celta B Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 45.4%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.5% for over 7.5 to 16.7% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.1%. Between the two sides, Almeria are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 56.2%, with a level count at 10.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 70.5% | 29.5% |
| 8.5 corners | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| 9.5 corners | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| 10.5 corners | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| 11.5 corners | 24.6% | 75.4% |
| 12.5 corners | 16.7% | 83.3% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
73.1%
57.6%
42.1%
57.3%
39.8%
25.4%
Corner handicap
| Almeria line | Almeria | Celta B |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 24.6% | 75.4% |
| -1.5 | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| -0.5 | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| +0.5 | 67.0% | 33.0% |
This season (2026/27)
4.0Almeria corners won per game6.0Almeria corners conceded per game3.6Celta B corners won per game4.4Celta B corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Almeria.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
46.1%Over 9.5 corners57.6%Almeria over 4.5 corners39.8%Celta B over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Almeria over 4.5 corners sits at 57.6% and Celta B at 39.8%. This season Almeria have averaged 4.0 corners won a game and Celta B 3.6.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Almeria vs Celta B?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 46.1% for Almeria vs Celta B.
Which team will win the corner count in Almeria vs Celta B?
The model rates Almeria to win the corner count at 56.2%, with a level count at 10.8%.
How many corners do Almeria and Celta B average this season?
Almeria have won 4.0 corners a game this season and Celta B 3.6.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Segunda División, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
