Segunda División
Las Palmas vs Burgos Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 41.7%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 66.9% for over 7.5 to 14.0% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.4%. Head to head on corners, Las Palmas are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 55.8%, with a level count at 11.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| 8.5 corners | 54.4% | 45.7% |
| 9.5 corners | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| 10.5 corners | 30.6% | 69.4% |
| 11.5 corners | 21.2% | 78.8% |
| 12.5 corners | 14.0% | 86.0% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
70.7%
54.7%
39.2%
54.8%
37.3%
23.2%
Corner handicap
| Las Palmas line | Las Palmas | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 23.7% | 76.3% |
| -1.5 | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| -0.5 | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| +0.5 | 66.9% | 33.1% |
This season (2026/27)
4.0Las Palmas corners won per game5.4Las Palmas corners conceded per game3.6Burgos corners won per game6.2Burgos corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Las Palmas.
In-depth analysis
41.9%Over 9.5 corners54.7%Las Palmas over 4.5 corners37.3%Burgos over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Las Palmas over 4.5 corners sits at 54.7% and Burgos at 37.3%. This season Las Palmas have averaged 4.0 corners won a game and Burgos 3.6.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Las Palmas vs Burgos?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 41.9% for Las Palmas vs Burgos.
Which team will win the corner count in Las Palmas vs Burgos?
The model rates Las Palmas to win the corner count at 55.8%, with a level count at 11.1%.
How many corners do Las Palmas and Burgos average this season?
Las Palmas have won 4.0 corners a game this season and Burgos 3.6.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
